To start the season, Jalen Hurts carried Philadelphia through narrow wins over Washington and Tennessee, and looked every bit the winning quarterback Eagles fans know him to be. Chicago and Los Angeles have since, in their own ways, throttled the Eagles, who arrive in London at 2–2 with OC Sean Mannion still trying to connect his running and passing games. Which, to this point, have been terrifically uncreative. Liam Coen’s Jaguars, on the other hand, are 3–1 after surviving Cincinnati’s late-game comeback in Week 4, two weeks after surrendering a similar lead in Denver. The Jags are humming, even when their stars don’t have big weeks. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Philadelphia Eagles in London.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Jags vs. Eagles prediction, preview
Hurts scraped together 93 passing yards on 27 attempts against the Rams. He almost always only throws from shotgun on all passing downs, and defenses are hip to it. Against Los Angeles, he overlooked an open Dontayvion Wicks; elsewhere, his blockers couldn’t sort the rushers. On one third-down sack, three Eagles blocked the same defender while rushers overwhelmed rookie tackle Markel Bell. Philadelphia failed on all 12 third downs. Jacksonville can threaten extra rushers, then drop some into coverage and attack those same confused assignments.
Mannion also needs his backs to move linebackers. Philadelphia have averaged a paltry 3.3 yards per carry on under-center handoffs through four games, and DaVon Hamilton’s front just smothered Cincinnati for 23 rushing yards on 15 carries. With Tank Bigsby on injured reserve and Saquon Barkley week to week with a hamstring injury, Will Shipley has become Philadelphia’s only healthy back. Guard Cam Jurgens has entered concussion protocol. I expect the Jags to force Hurts into obvious passing downs where Jacksonville can disguise the rush and get Hurts on the run, similar to what Byron Young and the Rams did Sunday.
Joe Burrow threw for 428 yards Sunday, though, when Eric Murray and Caleb Ransaw joined absent cornerback Montaric Brown among the injured defenders. DeVonta Smith could return, too. Hurts has beaten coverage downfield this season, particularly against Washington; he could find Smith for a few substantial gains. Jacksonville’s backups should concede some yardage. I still expect Hurts to miss throws and Anthony Campanile to interrupt promising drives.
Eagles vs. Jags pick, best bet
Brenton Strange was Trevor Lawrence’s binky over the middle last Sunday, breaking tackles and converting third downs during a seven-catch, 95-yard afternoon. Lawrence hit seven separate receivers while averaging a lively 9.9 yards per attempt on 18-of-23 passing. Coen can use motion and play action to make Philadelphia’s defenders exchange receivers, something they’ve already mishandled. Quinyon Mitchell and Zack Baun could miss this game, and those are two of Philadelphia’s defensive keystones. That’d be a team down morale, personnel, and a normal traveling schedule—Sirianni is having the Eagles do the McVay, just London-style.
Philadelphia’s interior should in theory slow Bhayshul Tuten, but Jacksonville erased two rushing touchdowns with penalties Sunday. A Tuten bounceback wouldn’t be wild to project. Cam Little can finish plenty of offensive drives himself; he hit field goals from 54 and 55 yards Sunday, and the folks across the pond love a little footie. Philadelphia needed interceptions and a long punt return to build their lead against the Rams in Week 4, then went scoreless over their final six possessions. Hurts should find a touchdown against Jacksonville’s wounded secondary, though. I expect Lawrence & co., however, to finish at least three drives in the end zone, and I’m laying the 6.5. The Eagles’ secondary is banged up enough that I’d look for a Parker Washington bounceback, too.
Really just feels like the Jags are London’s team, no?
Best bet: Jaguars -6.5 (-115).
Projected score: Jaguars 24, Eagles 13.
