New England Patriots vs. Las Vegas Raiders prediction, pick for NFL Week 5 on Sunday 10/11/26

Kirk Cousins and Kubiak’s Raiders kept coming after the Chiefs in Week 4, even down 11 in the fourth quarter. Las Vegas finally lost, 30-27, but, with heads held high, they head east with three wins, and a passing offense that keeps converting touchdowns. New England, as it happens, has just found theirs again. Drake Maye threw three tuds at Buffalo after the Patriots managed only two across their first three games. The Raiders’ operation is considerably cleaner than New England’s right now Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the New England Patriots and the Las Vegas Raiders.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Patriots vs. Raiders prediction, preview

Josh McDaniels helped Maye find his rhythm reading defenses again, and it’s a damned good thing. At Buffalo, he sent players in motion on 75.3% of snaps, up from 54% through three games, and put Hunter Henry to work blocking on trap runs. Henry then slipped behind the linebackers on play action; McDaniels should keep deploying him in the same away against Las Vegas, you ask me. Maye drove New England 97 yards for their opening touchdown; later, he fleet-footedly escaped a blitz and found Efton Chism III for the winner on a miraculous connection—hard to tell what was more excellent, the throw or the catch. Against Raiders defenders who missed a million tackles on Kenneth Walker’s 76-yard touchdown run last week, I expect McDaniels to keep moving bodies and making linebackers overcommit. I expect some Pop Douglas shake and bake underneath.

Maxx Crosby will obviously make Maye hurry, though. He hit Patrick Mahomes five times Sunday, and Will Campbell—surprise—struggled against Buffalo’s bull rushes. Maye also threw an interception and lost a fumble, and nearly lost two more. He’s still shaky under pressure right now, and his protection doesn’t seem to be on the ascent as we hoped it might for Campbell’s second year. A.J. Brown remains on IR; Mack Hollins’ calf injury will likely send Maye back to Chism, Henry, and Douglas more often. Kyle Williams is always good for an over-the-top attempt or two, and they very well may need to unleash him on a few go route’s now that Hollins isn’t there in the intermediate-throw zones.

Cousins is making WR1s out of his two tight ends. Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer (and now Ian Thomas?!) carried the passing offense Sunday, catching 16 passes for 200 yards and both touchdowns. Kubiak sends Bowers into the slot and out wide, where defenders have to follow; Mayer tends to work underneath him. New England’s Robert Spillane tracked Dalton Kincaid’s crossing routes at Buffalo, helping hold him to one catch for seven yards. I’d expect Kubiak to move Bowers around quite a bit and test Spillane’s range. Christian Gonzalez and Christian Barmore missed the Buffalo game with shoulder injuries; their availability remains uncertain for Week 5. Were they to play, however, it’d shore up New England’s perimeter to no small degree.

Raiders vs. Patriots pick, best bet

The Raiders still need to improve their own blocking schemes, particularly against the run. Last week, they labored through 26 carries for just 72 yards at Kansas City, and Jackson Powers-Johnson’s expected return to practice doesn’t sound like one spurred forth by a fully-healthy return-from-injury. Big ole Milton Williams can squeeze the pocket while Pats DC Zak Kuhr shows Cousins one coverage and drops into another. New England could pull away with good disguise.

I still expect Cousins to reach Bowers and Mayer often enough to answer Maye, especially with Gonzalez and Barmore on the mend. Crosby will, as he always does, force some punts; the Pats should force some field goals from the Raiders. Kubiak’s fine with that. Matt Gay has made all 10 attempts this season, and I expect Las Vegas to finish with three touchdowns and a field goal. Maye’s play-action throws to Henry should carry New England a little further. I’m taking 3.5 points against an offense Crosby can still detonate. Feels like this might be a Crosby game.

Best bet: Raiders +3.5 (-110).

Projected score: Patriots 27, Raiders 24.

Best Bet: Raiders +3.5 (-110) at Patriots