Every team in the AFC North is 2-1 after three weeks, the only division that can stake that claim.
To quote the great Vince Lombardi, “What the hell’s going on out here?!”
The Pittsburgh Steelers have scored 53 points while the Cleveland Browns have scored 54. Only eight other teams have scored fewer than 60 points through three weeks. For perspective, the Baltimore Ravens have put up 92 points while the Cincinnati Bengals have produced 80. Comically, the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins have 36 points each.
Let’s get the bad stuff out of the way first.
Pittsburgh ranks 30th in the NFL in net yards per pass attempt, 28th in rush attempts, and 30th in rushing touchdowns. A 43-year-old Aaron Rodgers is completing only 58.4% of his passes while averaging 6.2 yards per attempt. The passing attack has been egalitarian. DK Metcalf leads the way with 24 targets, but he, Roman Wilson, and Pat Freiermuth are all tied with 11 receptions. Running back Jaylen Warren has 10 catches. Wilson, Warren, and Freiermuth have racked up 114, 110, and 108 receiving yards, while Metcalf and Darnell Washington have each recorded 90+ yards through the air.
There is some semblance of hope, though, as the Steelers offense scored 30 points last week against the Bengals. Rodgers had three completions of at least 30 yards, and Warren piled up 127 yards on the ground. That said, it was only one week. Is this the beginning of a trend or was it an outlier?
Well, the Browns’ defense sorely misses Jim Schwartz. They currently rank 26th in blitz rate and 28th in pressure rate. They’ve allowed six passing touchdowns, seven sacks, and two interceptions. Cleveland’s 93.3 opponent quarterback rating is 15th. On the ground, they’ve allowed 361 yards — 10th-most — and 4.5 yards per carry. They haven’t allowed any rushing touchdowns, though; only four other teams can make that claim.
Blitzburgh it is not, but the Steelers defense ranks 12th in blitz rate and has recorded eight sacks. Their pressure rate is middle of the pack, and they’ve posted a 66.7 opposing quarterback completion rate and a 91.2 passer rating. The unit has allowed four passing touchdowns but has plucked three interceptions. On the ground, the unit is allowing 4.4 yards per carry.
Deshaun Watson was putrid in Week 1 but played well the last two weeks, completing 80% and 72.7% of his passes for three touchdowns and an interception. It wasn’t all dink-and-dunk stuff either, with yards per attempt of 7.9 and 9.3, respectively. Watson does have a rushing component to his game with 105 total yards racked up so far this season. He’s no Lamar Jackson, but he can get out to the edge or upfield if the pocket breaks down.
Cleveland’s big bugaboo, though, is its non-existent rushing attack. Cleveland ranks 29th in rushing yards, 29th in yards per carry, and has yet to punch one in. The Steelers haven’t been the Steel Curtain, but the run defense hasn’t been Charmin soft either. I doubt the Browns will have much success on the ground in this one, especially with the 29th-rated offensive line per PFF.
Pittsburgh enters as a 2.5-point road favorite with -148 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Cleveland is a +124 underdog, with the game total set at O/U 38.5 points.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (PIT at CLE)
Captain’s Picks
Deshaun Watson ($14,100 CP): Watson was brutal in Week 1, attempting only 22 passes while throwing an interception. He still finished with 15 FPTS after throwing a touchdown and rushing for 38 yards. In the last two weeks, he’s put up 19.7 and 20.3 FPTS. He attempted 30 passes in each game and rushed 18 times total. He looks more comfortable in the offense and has weapons. Plus, I doubt the Browns have much success rushing the ball.
UTIL Plays
Jaylen Warren ($9,600): With Rico Dowdle out in Week 3, Warren played 90% of the snaps and rushed 17 times for 127 yards, and caught three of four targets for 49 yards. He also had five red zone opportunities. Dowdle is out for this one, so Warren should remain Pittsburgh’s bell cow back.
Harold Fannin Jr. ($7,400): Fanin plays around 85% of the snaps and is second on the team with 18 targets. Last week, he caught seven of nine targets for 51 yards and two touchdowns. Fanin was uber-productive in college and surprised many with 72 receptions on 107 targets for 731 yards and six touchdowns during his 2025 rookie season. He’s a baller. All he needed was to be competent at quarterback. At least for now, Watson is.
Denzel Boston ($8,000): Fellow rookie wide receiver KC Concepcion had higher draft capital and leads the team with 20 targets. Still, Boston has 195 yards and two touchdowns, while Concepcion has 80 yards with zero touchdowns. Boston is 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, and possesses elite ball skills.
Fades
DK Metcalf ($9,000): Metcalf leads the Steelers with 24 targets, but he’s caught only 11 for 98 yards and a touchdown. He’s expensive, and I’d much rather pay $600 for Warren’s bankable, dual-threat workload.
Outcome
An island game on national television, at home and as an underdog? The Browns should notch their third win of the season.
