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Deshaun Watson Passing Yards Pick for Steelers vs. Browns

Deshaun Watson Passing Yards Pick for Steelers vs. Browns

NFL Sports Betting Picks DraftKings Sportsbook Insights

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By: Alex Hunter

The Browns are hosting the Steelers for an NFL Week 4 matchup on Thursday Night Football. DraftKings Sportsbook favors Pittsburgh by 2.5 points and this game presents a total of 38.5 points.

Let’s dive into the top Deshaun Watson prop bet for Thursday’s primetime matchup.

RELATED Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers prediction, pick for NFL Week 4 on Thursday 10/01/26

Deshaun Watson Best Passing Yards Prop Bet vs. Steelers

Deshaun Watson Over 186.5 Passing Yards (-112)

The Browns are 2-1, and Watson’s steady play under center has been a key reason for the team’s success. The veteran is averaging 7.2 YPA, and he has thrown five touchdowns to just one interception. Watson ranks 12th in completion percentage (68.3%), finishing with 205, 238 and 144 passing yards in his three starts.

Watson now meets a Steelers defense that is yielding the NFL’s 11th-most yards per pass this season (7.1). The inept Cooper Rush only threw for 143 yards against Pittsburgh in Week 1, but this defense allowed a struggling Drake Maye to finish with 208 yards in Week 2 and Joe Burrow to finish with 282 yards in Week 3.

The Steelers use zone coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL (83.9%), and Watson has been strong in these scenarios. He ranks eighth in passer rating (103.7) and 12th in YPA against zone (7.9).

Watson should have a strong showing as a passer in this spot. He should have no trouble exceeding this low 186.5-yard line, which mostly feels like recency bias following one poor performance.

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Alex Hunter
Alex Hunter is an avid DFS player and sports handicapper, who has been a proud member of the DraftKings Network team since 2020. He is a data-driven analyst, who earned his bachelor’s degree in communications at Worcester State University and has been in the sports content business for nearly a decade, covering the NBA, NFL and PGA TOUR. Alex is a diehard Boston Celtics fan, who loves to be on the golf course when he isn’t grinding lineups or producing content. For all of Alex’s work or if you need any lineup advice, be sure to follow him @Hunta512 on X.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.