DK Metcalf Touchdown Scorer Pick for Steelers vs. Browns

So far this season, the AFC standings seem to be flipped on their head; the Las Vegas Raiders are tied for the best record in the league at 3-0, and the Houston Texans are 0-3. Then, there’s the Pittsburgh Steelers; at 2-1, they’re right above .500, which is fitting after three consecutive 10-7 campaigns.

The entire AFC North is 2-1, but none of the four teams have been very convincing. The Steelers have mostly won in spite of their offense, not because of it. Aaron Rodgers has shown plenty of signs of his age, and D.K. Metcalf, Pittsburgh’s leading receiver last season, has yet to total 100 yards through the season’s first three games.

The Steelers will need a bounce-back performance from him in tonight’s Thursday Night Football clash against the Cleveland Browns, which is set to begin at 8:15 p.m. ET.

Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point favorite for tonight’s game at DraftKings Sportsbook (-148 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 38.5. The Browns are +124 on the Moneyline.

Below, I’ll break down Metcalf’s touchdown scorer prop for tonight’s marquee matchup.

DK Metcalf Prop Bet vs. Browns

DK Metcalf Anytime TD Scorer (+230)

Metcalf hasn’t had a double-digit touchdown-scoring season since 2021, but he doesn’t need to in order to return good value on this +230 prop. He was solid enough last season, finding the end zone six times as a receiver and once as a runner, scoring in seven distinct games from the 15 he started. Metcalf found the end zone for the first time in 2026 against the Cincinnati Bengals, scoring from six yards away after a collision between two Bengals defenders left him completely unguarded.

Metcalf’s touchdown came on the first target he’d had within the red zone, as Rodgers has only attempted three passes inside the opponent’s 20-yard line through the first three games. However, in the long term, he should still be the veteran’s preferred option, as he led the team in red zone targets last season. Pittsburgh did bring in another large red zone threat in Michael Pittman Jr., who garnered 22.9% of the Indianapolis Colts’ red zone targets, but Pittman didn’t score after November 23 last season, with his production dropping off significantly after Daniel Jones’ injury.

It comes down to whether or not Rodgers can get him the ball. The 42-year-old has been awful this season, completing just 58.4% of his passes and posting his lowest passer rating as a starter. Despite those struggles, Mike McCarthy has continued to operate a pass-first offense, and unless Jaylen Warren’s performance necessitates it, that could continue as long as Rico Dowdle remains out. The Steelers haven’t been very efficient at getting down the field, but Metcalf also has more big-play potential than Pittman or Roman Wilson, so he’s more likely to break off a long catch-and-run.

He should have a favorable matchup against Cleveland, which has allowed the second-most receiving touchdowns to opposing wideouts this season and ranks 17th by PFF’s coverage grades. While the Browns have two players in the top eight by coverage grades, Metcalf almost never lines up in the slot, keeping him away from Myles Harden. While he might have some trouble when he lines up against Denzel Ward, Cleveland’s other outside corner, Tyson Campbell, is awful. He ranks just 86th among 99 qualified corners this season. Metcalf scored in his lone game against the Browns last season, catching a 25-yard touchdown pass while guarded by Campbell.