Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers prediction, pick for NFL Week 10 on Sunday 11/15/26

Joe Burrow completed his first 14 passes against Pittsburgh in September, threw three touchdowns and watched the Steelers escape with a 30–27 win. A muffed punt and a roughing-the-punter penalty cost Cincinnati 10 points; on the Bengals’ final possession, Derrick Harmon knocked the ball from Burrow’s hand. That’s a maddening way to lose a division game. Both teams have won four straight since, and the winner tonight takes sole possession of first place in the AFC North. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Most all stats provided by Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0.

Bengals vs. Steelers prediction, preview

Burrow has been magnificent during Cincinnati’s winning streak: 16 touchdown passes in four games, with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins tormenting defenses together. Chase caught 21 passes for 296 yards over the past two weeks alone. Pittsburgh has held opponents to 18 points per game and allowed one second-half touchdown all season, yet Burrow threw three against this defense in the first meeting. He’s the only quarterback to throw multiple touchdown passes against the Steelers this year.

Patrick Graham found a way to slow him in that game. Burrow completed nine of 15 throws for 76 yards against Pittsburgh’s Cover 3, then went 17-for-20 with three touchdowns against two-high looks. That’s a small sample, though I’d expect Graham to lean into what worked and make Burrow solve it again. Cincinnati’s ability to survive long yardage should help: the Bengals have converted a league-best 39.5% of their third downs needing at least seven yards. T.J. Watt and the pass rush got to Burrow for just one sack in September, and the line has a fresh problem tonight. Right guard Dalton Risner and reserve tackle Myles Hinton were added to the injury report Sunday with illnesses; both are questionable. Harmon, activated from injured reserve Saturday, is questionable as well.

Jaylen Warren has an inviting assignment of his own. He tore through Cincinnati for 127 yards on 17 carries in September, and the Bengals have allowed a league-high 2.21 yards before first contact per rush this season. Their frequent sub-packages leave Warren room to attack: he ran 11 times for 74 yards against those personnel groupings in the first meeting. Dexter Lawrence can disrupt the interior, and opponents average 4.5 YPC when the defensive tackle is on the field compared with 5.9 when he’s off. I’d expect Pittsburgh to test the Bengals throughout Lawrence’s breathers, especially after Warren ran for 143 yards against Cleveland before the bye.

Steelers vs. Bengals pick, best bet

Aaron Rodgers had his way with Cincinnati early in September, completing eight of 11 passes for 143 yards and two touchdowns in the first quarter. The Bengals grew more aggressive as the game wore on, playing man coverage on 64.7% of their second-half snaps and blitzing on 33.3% of dropbacks. Rodgers completed 11 of 23 passes for 149 yards, a touchdown and an interception over the final three quarters. He’s averaged 5.4 yards per attempt against the blitz this season. Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson are out, Pat Freiermuth is questionable with an illness, and Kyle Dugger is out for Cincinnati. Darnell Washington, who caught three passes for 67 yards in the first meeting, has a chance to trouble a defense allowing 8.8 yards per target to tight ends.

Warren can make this a long night for the Bengals, and Pittsburgh’s defense has earned every bit of its reputation. I’m laying the field goal and the hook with Cincinnati anyway. Burrow already put 27 points on this defense once; with the way he’s throwing to Chase and Higgins, I trust him to finish enough drives for a lead that forces Rodgers into more of those difficult passing situations. Cincinnati’s pressure and coverage adjustments can then do more of the work they did after the first quarter in September. A Risner absence would make the bet less comfortable against Watt and company, so check the inactives before placing it.

Best bet: Bengals -3.5 (-110)

Projected score: Bengals 27, Steelers 20.

Best Bet: Bengals -3.5 (-110) vs. Steelers