An NL East clash is on tap this evening in Philly. The Braves (83-57) have their eyes set on a return to the World Series. Securing a bye in the ultra-competitive National League would go a long way towards turning Atlanta’s October dreams into reality. As for the Phillies (79-61), a red-hot month of August has put this team in pole position for a wild card spot. Securing a series victory this weekend would prove Philadelphia deserves mention amongst the sport’s elite.
The Phillies are favorites (-120) over the Braves; the over/under is set at 6.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Atlanta and Philadelphia on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Braves vs. Phillies pick, best bet today
- Braves vs. Phillies under 6.5 runs (-101): Chris Sale and Cristopher Sanchez on the mound; don’t overthink this one. Both pitchers have had success in this spot, so there’s no reason to think they can’t spin another gem. At essentially even money, the under makes plenty of sense on Friday.
Braves vs. Phillies prediction, preview
Fans at Citizens Bank Park are in for a real treat tonight. It’s shaping up to be an old-fashioned pitcher’s duel, with both sides sending their ace to the mound. For the visiting Braves, that means Chris Sale will get the nod in this one. Through 144.0 innings of work (24 starts), he’s recorded a 2.06 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 177 strikeouts (11.1 K/9). Those kind of numbers have only been surpassed by Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski. During his most recent appearance, the former Cy Young winner tossed nine scoreless innings against none other than the Dodgers. Sale sits within the 89th percentile or better in xERA (), chase rate (37.0%), strikeout rate (30.7%) and walk rate (4.9%).
With that being said, there’s no guarantee of another shutout against tonight’s opponent. The Phillies are a dangerous offensive unit, especially over the past month. Since August 1st, they’ve scored the fourth-most runs in all of baseball (154). Despite the recent addition of contact hitter Luis Arraez, Philadelphia remains a homer-happy lineup. However, swinging for the fences may not be a viable strategy on Friday. Sale has an MLB-best 0.5 HR/9 ratio. To boot, the 37-year-old has allowed just one earned run over 13.0 innings vs. the Phillies this season.
In this battle between elite southpaws, Cristopher Sanchez will toe the slab for Philadelphia. It’s been another terrific campaign from the All-Star. Over 175.1 innings pitched (28 starts), he’s posted a 2.52 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 202 strikeouts (10.4 K/9). It helps that tonight’s matchup takes place at Citizens Bank Park. Sanchez has accounted for a minuscule 1.68 ERA over 16 appearances at home. Among several impressive statistics, the left-hander’s most dominant trait is an ability to keep the ball from elevating. His 98th percentile ground ball rate (58.5%) offers ample opportunity for double plays, on the off chance any runners reach base.
This Braves lineup has been a force all season, sitting near the top of the league in most categories. They’re ninth in runs scored (653), seventh in homers (178) and tenth in OPS (.725). However, the past few weeks have been difficult at best for the NL East leaders. Since the start of August, Atlanta has scored a National League-worst 116 runs. To make matters worse, the team has a below-average .679 OPS on the road against left-handed pitching. During Sanchez’s lone meeting this season with the Braves, he tossed six scoreless innings.
Best Bet: Braves vs. Phillies under 6.5 runs (-101)
This is about as low of a run line as you’ll see for a regular season game, and for good reason. Both Sale and Sanchez are among the best pitchers on Earth, with plenty of familiarity against these lineups. It’s not the most exciting bet in the world, but sometimes those are the most obvious wagers. Expect these two arms to keep the scoring in check on Friday.
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