The Paul Bunyan Trophy is on the line tonight in Ann Arbor. Michigan State (2-6, 0-5) has struggled, falling to the bottom of the Big Ten standings. However, the Spartans should find some extra motivation this weekend against an in-state rival. Michigan (5-3, 2-3) has come close against several contenders. If the Wolverines want to establish an identity under new head coach Kyle Whittingham, Saturday’s contest is a must-win. Which of these ancient foes will emerge victorious tonight at The Big House?
The Wolverines are listed as 14.5-point favorites over the Spartans, with the total set at O/U 39.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Saturday’s Michigan State vs. Michigan Week 10 matchup.
Michigan State vs. Michigan prediction, preview
In a game that has slugfest potential, each drive has added importance for Michigan State. In some ways, this sputtering offense has gotten unlucky. Standout running back Camryn Edwards suffered a season-ending knee injury in late September, curtailing a solid rushing attack. Since then, the Spartans haven’t had much success establishing a strong ground game. In fact, they rank last in the Big Ten with just 3.14 yards per rush attempt this season.
Things have been even worse through the air for this crew. Alessio Milivojevic has struggled at quarterback, throwing for 1,263 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions over seven games. He’s currently listed as questionable to play this weekend due to an undisclosed injury. To make matters worse, backup Cam Fancher (leg) is also listed as out. That leaves one of freshmen Kayd Coffman or Leo Hannan as MSU’s QB if Milivojevic can’t play this weekend. As if that wasn’t bad enough, leading rusher Jaziun Patterson (undisclosed) will also sit out vs. Michigan.
It’s one thing to be without several key pieces on offense. It’s a whole different challenge moving the ball against Michigan, even at full strength. This group has been nothing short of dominant, leading the Big Ten with 250.0 yards allowed per game. Among all FBS schools, only Notre Dame and North Dakota State have been better in that category. There are no weaknesses for this group, especially in the back seven. The Wolverines have given up 5.9 yards per pass attempt, third-best in the conference. To boot, UM has snagged seven interceptions over eight games. A timely pick or two could be in order tonight, especially if Milivojevic doesn’t take the field.
It’s the other side of the ball that’s been a perpetual disappointment for Michigan. Whittingham opted for a quarterback change two weeks ago, going with Tommy Carr under center. So far, mixed results for the freshman. His first start, against #4 Indiana, wasn’t pretty. However, Carr bounced back with 266 passing yards and three total touchdowns last Saturday at Rutgers. The youngster has some untapped potential outside of the pocket; he racked up 54 rushing yards against the Scarlet Knights. It helps that opposing defenses have to account for backfield duo Jordan Marshall and Savion Hiter as well. Still, Michigan is averaging a mediocre 3.70 yards per rush attempt this season. That’s fifth-worst among all 18 Big Ten schools.
If there was ever a time for the Wolverines to get it going on the ground, it’s this evening. An already subpar Michigan State run defense will be without a key cog in defensive tackle Ben Roberts (leg). As a unit, the Spartans have surrendered 5.57 yards per play to opponents. That’s only good enough for 13th in the conference this season. MSU has coughed up 150+ rushing yards in four of its previous six matchups.
Michigan State vs. Michigan Best Bet
Even if the Wolverines generate positive gains in the run game, the clock will continue to burn tonight. That places added pressure on an injury-depleted Michigan State offense. Given the key pieces sidelined for the Spartans, it’s difficult to envision the visitors surpassing ten points on Saturday. Keeping that in mind, this over feels a tad too high for Week 10’s grudge match.
Best Bet: Michigan State vs. Michigan under 39.5 points (-108)
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