NFL Week 9 Best Bets: Expert Picks and Analysis

There are some great games on the Week 9 NFL slate.

With plenty of ways to get in on the action on DraftKings Sportsbook, this is a look at my best bets for Sunday.

NFL Week 9 Best Bets: Expert Picks, Predictions and Analysis

Eagles +3.5 vs. Giants (-118)

Why not spend your Sunday afternoon rooting for Joe Milton against J.J. McCarthy? This has been a nightmare of a season for the Eagles. In a wide-open NFC East, they are 2-6 and Jalen Hurts is out for the season. DeVonta Smith has also been dealing with an injury, and with A.J. Brown in New England, Philadelphia is very short at receiver. The injury that took Saquon Barkley out made the team’s offense completely inept. However, Barkley has returned and is working his way back to full-game fitness. The Eagles also decided to make a quarterback change. Tanner McKee wasn’t getting it done, so Philadelphia brought in Joe Milton to be its new starter.

Milton played well in the preseason for Dallas, but lost the backup job to Sam Howell. Milton has a huge arm, but also turns the ball over too much. However, that high upside is what the Eagles are looking for. They truly have nothing to lose, and they might as well go down swinging. Milton could provide a spark for this offense, especially because the Giants won’t know exactly how to prepare. That spark could eventually wear off, but for one week, Milton could be exactly what the Eagles need.

J.J. McCarthy provided that spark for the Giants. However, as referenced above, that spark will likely wear off. McCarthy was really poor by the end of his tenure in Minnesota, and he will start having a tougher time in New York once defenses can adjust to what he is doing in this offense. Vic Fangio should come up with a great defensive game plan to make life hard on McCarthy. This should be a tough, low-scoring divisional battle, and I’ll back the Super Bowl-winning coaching staff to at least cover the 3.5-point spread. The Giants haven’t won in Philadelphia since 2013 and the Eagles won’t want that streak to end just yet.

Lions vs. Dolphins Over 50.5 Points (-115)

These are two of the worst pass defenses in the league. The Lions rank 29th in defensive EPA/drop back and the Dolphins rank 32nd. They both rank bottom-five in defensive drop back success rate, as well. Meanwhile, the Miami offense has really improved over the past few weeks. It’s scored 24 points against the Jets and 25 points against the Bengals over the past three weeks. Malik Willis should be able to operate against this vulnerable Detroit secondary and get to a similar number in this matchup.

Jared Goff and the Detroit offense should shred the Miami defense. Elite offenses have done that this season, with the Bengals scoring 31 points in Miami and San Francisco scoring 35 points back in Week 2. The Lions rank top-five in the NFL in offensive EPA/play and offensive success rate. They should be able to score in the 30s against the Dolphins, just like those other elite offenses did.

The Lions have played two games in a row against divisional opponents, where there is a lot of familiarity. Those games will always be lower scoring. However, their first five games of the season all went over 50.5 total points. They should get back to that trend this week.

Six-Point Teaser: Panthers +8.5 & Seahawks -2.5

The Panthers should keep it close at home against the Broncos. Denver is not the same team on the road as it is at home. They are 4-0 at home this season, but 2-2 on the road. This is a particularly long road trip to Charlotte, spanning two time zones. Denver ranks 21st in offensive EPA/play and 29th in offensive success rate this season. The Broncos lack explosivity, but also struggle to move the ball methodically. While the Panthers’ defense isn’t elite, they should keep Denver in check at home. The Panthers are also coming into this game on extended rest after playing on Thursday night last week. They should be very prepared for this matchup and keep it close.

The Seahawks should get back to winning ways this week. Seattle still ranks fifth in the NFL in defensive EPA/play and second in defensive success rate. They’ll be able to shut down the Arizona offense. Gardner Minshew provided a real spark off the bench last week against the terrible Dallas defense. However, he should really struggle on the road against an elite Seattle defense that is expecting him. Drew Lock will be much more conservative than Sam Darnold, but that might not be a bad thing right now. He should manage this game and let the Seattle defense lead the way to victory.