Boise State backup quarterback Max Cutforth threw three touchdowns on 13 attempts against Texas State, dragging the Broncos out of an extraordinary collapse and into a 46–45 win. Boise had led 28–3. Starter Maddux Madsen missed Thursday’s practice with the knee injury that forced him out, leaving Cutforth in line for another chance at a Colorado State defense that has spent much of the season failing to get anybody down. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Colorado State Rams and the Boise State Broncos.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Colorado State vs. Boise State prediction, preview
Broncos back Dylan Riley has rushed for 1,049 yards in eight games, and Colorado State has allowed 261.1 rushing yards per game. Rams coach Jim Mora has described defenders guessing at gaps and failing to replace teammates taken out by blocks. Utah State ran for 247 and held the ball for more than 36 minutes. Riley should get enough carries to test whether Mora has finally corrected those errors, and Colorado State has given very little reason to expect a tidy afternoon of tackling.
Colorado State has allowed touchdowns on 55.2% of competitive FBS possessions and a nation-worst 4.24 points per drive. Boise has averaged 3.51 on its own drives. Even before Cutforth came in against Texas State, the Broncos had driven 83 yards for each of their first two touchdowns. Riley can spare either quarterback some difficult downs, and Cutforth has just shown how quickly he can get the ball to receivers Rasean Jones and Akeem Wright when Boise needs points.
Colorado State quarterback Hauss Hejny can make the Broncos defend, too. The Rams have averaged 2.72 points per competitive FBS drive and reached 4.90 against San Diego State. Boise let Texas State hit long passing touchdowns, and its defenders have little reason to feel satisfied after watching a 25-point lead disappear. Hejny can punish another lost receiver downfield if his protection gives him time to find one.
Boise State vs. Colorado State pick, best bet
At Utah State, Colorado State gave Hejny very little of that freedom. The Rams finished the first half with minus-five net rushing yards and failed to cross midfield again after their opening possession. They surrendered eight tackles for loss and scored 0.86 points per competitive drive. With back Mel Brown and lineman John Holthaus questionable, Hejny could spend another afternoon throwing after his first two downs have already gone wrong. Boise has a far easier path to the next first down.
I’ll lay 17.5 with Boise. Cutforth has earned confidence that the Broncos can finish possessions if Madsen sits, and Riley faces the country’s worst defense in adjusted EPA per rush allowed. Hejny can get Colorado State into the 20s. The Rams would still need their defense to force several stops against an offense equipped to punish the same missed tackles and abandoned gaps Mora has been trying to fix.
Best bet: Boise State -17.5 (-110).
Projected score: Boise State 45, Colorado State 24.
Best Bet: Boise State -17.5 (-110) at Colorado State
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