As the clock ticks down on what could be the most frustrating season in Los Angeles Angels history, they’ll begin a critical nine-game road trip. The Angels need to finish at least 10-12 to maintain their record of never suffering a 100-loss season.
That nine-game road trip will begin with a three-game set against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are at the very fringes of the playoff picture and need wins to keep pace with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The series opener is set to begin tonight at 6:45 p.m. ET. Ryan Johnson will toe the rubber for Los Angeles, and Jared Jones will get the call for the Pirates.
Let’s break down this interleague clash with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Pirates Best Bets
- Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+109): The Angels have lost by two or more runs in 12 of the 17 games in which Johnson has appeared this season, and his advanced numbers suggest that even his hot recent form is misleading.
- Oneil Cruz 2+ Total Bases (+127): Cruz is on an absolute tear, slashing .300/.417/.540 in his 14 games since returning from a broken hand, and Johnson’s 93 Stuff+ offerings aren’t likely to fool him.
Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Pirates prediction, preview
If the Angels are seeking to avoid unwanted history, they’re limping to the finish line, putting up just a 15-28 record since the All-Star break, and thanks to the Colorado Rockies’ two-game winning streak, they’re in pole position to finish with baseball’s worst record for the first time. Across the last 30 days, Los Angeles’ offense has been baseball’s worst, as future Hall of Famer Mike Trout (.242/.346/.331 slash line since the All-Star break) has a sub-.800 OPS for the first time this season and Jo Adell remembered how to hit only after his trade to the Cleveland Guardians. None of the Angels’ young prospects — Moisés Ballesteros, Christian Moore, and Denzer Guzmán — has been worth positive WAR. Los Angeles has pitched well, at least, as its starters somehow pitched to a 2.51 ERA in August. Reid Detmers and Walbert Ureña’s breakouts made it easier for the Angels to move on from José Soriano, and despite dealing relievers Brent Suter, Ryan Zeferjahn, and Chase Silseth at the trade deadline, Blake Weiman, Ben Joyce, and Ryan Watson have put up some solid production. All Los Angeles can hope for at this point is to find some building blocks for the future alongside Detmers and Ureña.
Pittsburgh was still hanging around the fringes of the playoff picture at the All-Star break, but the Milwaukee Brewers’ dominance has made it difficult to truly compete in the NL Central for the better part of the 2020s. Since the Midsummer Classic, the Pirates have gone just 19-25, falling five games behind the Diamondbacks. Like the Angels, Pittsburgh has been horrendous offensively as of late, ranking fourth-to-last in OPS in the last 30 days, in part because top prospect Konnor Griffin has remained on the IL since early July. There have still been some positives, though; Oneil Cruz returned after missing more than two months with a hand fracture and has posted a .957 OPS in his first 14 games since coming back, and it’s hard to complain with an .867 OPS overall for rookie Esmerlyn Valdéz so far, even though he’s dropped back to .714 while hitting below the Mendoza Line since the All-Star break. The Pirates’ rotation also arguably hasn’t been as good as it should be, putting up a 4.66 ERA in the second half of the season as Paul Skenes’ first major travails as a pro have continued. However, Pittsburgh’s bullpen recorded a sub-3 ERA in August, as Gregory Soto, Yohan Ramírez, and Mason Montgomery have formed a solid spine and trade deadline acquisitions Lake Bachar, Camilo Doval, and Kirby Yates have all been solid.
Johnson hasn’t been very sharp in his first season as a full-time starter, recording a 5.47 ERA across 14 starts and three relief appearances. However, he’s been a little better since re-entering the rotation full-time in mid-June, making 13 starts and pitching to a 4.22 ERA, including a 1.71 mark across five starts in August. Even in August, though, his FIP was just 5.98, and with just a fourth-percentile xERA, that strong form feels unsustainable. Johnson ranks in the bottom septile in both chase rate and strikeout rate, mitigating two of the Pirates’ biggest weaknesses, and he’s also struggled with his control, aiding a team that has drawn the fifth-most free passes this season. His 14th-percentile ground ball rate should aid a team that’s hit grounders at the fifth-highest clip. He does rank above the league median in both hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, but in part because he’s struggled to keep the ball down, he sports just a sixth-percentile barrel rate, and Pittsburgh has found the barrel more frequently than most. To make matters even worse, Johnson has posted a 6.48 ERA on the road, and the Pirates’ OPS is 98 points higher at home, one of the largest disparities in the league.
Jones isn’t a great pitcher, either. He owns just a 4.83 ERA in 16 starts, and although his form is generally decent — he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in 11 of his last 12 starts — that one exception was a three-inning, eight-run disaster against the New York Mets. Still, advanced numbers unequivocally prefer Jones to Johnson; he has a solid 59th-percentile xERA, suggesting that (like his more highly-touted teammate Skenes) he’s gotten rather unlucky this season. In particular, the flamethrower has done a tremendous job generating whiffs and strikeouts, ranking in the top quintile in both stats, and Los Angeles has struck out the third-most times while whiffing at the highest rate. The Angels also aren’t well-suited to take advantage of his 46th-percentile walk rate, as they’ve drawn the fourth-fewest walks this season. Jones’ main issue is his tendency to give up hard hits, as he ranks in the 39th percentile or lower in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity, but Los Angeles ranks near the bottom of the league in the latter two stats. The Angels have been somewhat better on the road and Jones worse at home, but I still expect that he’ll out-perform Johnson.
Los Angeles Angels at Pittsburgh Pirates pick, best bet
Best Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+109)
It’s hard to have faith in either of these offenses, but Jones should have a significant advantage in the starting pitching matchup over Johnson, and Pittsburgh’s bullpen is one of the hottest units in baseball.
Strong Lean: Oneil Cruz 2+ Total Bases (+127)
Since returning from his injury, Cruz has had at least two total bases eight times in 14 games. Johnson throws his cutter most frequently, and Cruz has a solid .429 slugging percentage against right-handed cutters this season.
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