While the Red Sox appear to be pretty locked into the second Wild Card spot in the AL, this is a massive four-game series for the Orioles, who are clinging to the hope that they can grab the final Wild Card berth.
Can Baltimore rebound after losing Thursday’s tightly-contested tilt? Let’s preview this battle between AL East foes and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Red Sox vs. Orioles prediction, preview
I’m not sure you could have scripted a more heart-breaking loss for the Orioles on Thursday night. Not only did the club blow a 3-1 lead to a division rival, but Adley Rutschman was at the forefront of it all, smacking a pair of home runs in his return to Camden Yards. The former franchise cornerstone of Baltimore had previously been struggling with Boston, as well. In his 59 plate appearances before coming back to face the Orioles, Rutschman was slashing a putrid .170/.254/.245 with a 41 wRC+. I guess that’s just the overwhelming power of a good revenge narrative, huh?
Now, on Friday night, Shane Baz will take the ball and try and stop the bleeding. It’s been an odd first season in Baltimore of the RHP. Once considered one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, Baz never really lived up to the hype in Tampa, yet any “struggles” with the Orioles in 2026 almost seem more like unluckiness than anything else. Baz’s .317 opponent BABIP is a career-high, despite a career-low 6.4% opponent barrel rate; while the 27-year-old’s 67.8% strand rate is the sixth-lowest qualified mark in MLB. The former first-round pick is still flirting with 99 mph on his fastball, and a 3.36 FIP across 157.0 innings is a really commendable figure. The Orioles might already be vindicated for giving Baz a $68 million extension prior to the season, yet an elite performance this evening — in September — would go a long way in the eyes of fans.
Speaking of large contracts, Ranger Suarez will make his 25th start as a member of the Red Sox on Friday, just nine days after his 31st birthday. On the whole, the veteran southpaw’s 2026 has been a success, with Suarez maintaining a 3.64 ERA and a 3.10 FIP over 123.2 innings of work. However, Suarez has looked less sharp since returning from a mid-July IL stint. In his last six outings, Suarez has limped to a 5.72 ERA with just a 12.8% strikeout rate and a 1.23 K/BB ratio. That includes giving up a season-high six earned runs to the Yankees his last time out in the Bronx. Boston will need Suarez to round into form before the team’s Wild Card series, especially with Garrett Crochet’s status still unknown.
Red Sox vs. Orioles pick, best bet
Best Bet: Red Sox ML (-120)
Through very little fault of his own, Baz is 5-14 on the season. The Orioles are just 7-20 in his 27 starts. It doesn’t speak to Baz’s talent, but it does illustrate how difficult it is to trust Baltimore. Meanwhile, the Red Sox lead all AL teams in ISO (.185), wOBA (.344) and wRC+ (117) since the All-Star break. They’ve got the firepower to win any contest.
Strong Lean: Ranger Suarez Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-112)
Suarez has gone under this prop is six straight starts. It’s a span of time where the lefty’s strikeout rate is a mere 12.8%. The Orioles are a free-swinging lineup, but this line is set too high for me to take seriously.
