As the NBA is in the middle of an unprecedented era of parity and the second apron makes it more financially punitive to keep cores together, established rivalries between franchises are getting rarer. However, established rivalries between individuals are thriving, and after finishing first and second in MVP voting in each of the last three seasons, Nikola Jokić and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can be defined in opposition to each other.
Tonight, Jokić’s Denver Nuggets and Gilgeous-Alexander’s Oklahoma City Thunder will face off for the first time this season when the Thunder host the Nuggets at 9:40 p.m. ET.
Oklahoma City is an 8.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-325 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 236.5. Denver is +260 on the Moneyline.
Below, I’ll break down my favorite prop bets from tonight’s matchup, choosing one from each perennial MVP candidate.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Player Prop Bets
Nikola Jokić 14+ Rebounds (+116)
As is, Jokić averaged a league-leading 12.9 rebounds per game last season, the second-highest mark of his career, and he snagged at least 14 boards in 31 of his 65 games, making this prop solid value on implied odds alone. He also started his 2025/26 season with six 14-plus-rebound performances in his first 10 games. The Nuggets might be less able to stay competitive on the glass in non-Jokić minutes with Marvin Bagley III now his backup instead of Jonas Valančiūnas, which could have some impact on his minutes.
Rebounding is just about the Thunder’s only weakness. Oklahoma City allowed the 11th-most rebounds per game during the regular season in 2025/26, as well as the seventh-most among the 16 playoff participants. Despite winning the rebounding battle by two against the San Antonio Spurs in their season opener on Tuesday night, the Thunder gave up 13 rebounds to Victor Wembanyama, a similar-quality rebounder who averages fewer minutes per game. Jokić recorded 14 or more rebounds in two of his three games against Oklahoma City last season, and in the exception, he was on a minutes restriction after returning from an injury.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 31+ Points (-120)
Gilgeous-Alexander made basketball look easy in the Thunder’s season opener, pouring in 32 points on 13-for-27 shooting (three-for-seven from beyond the arc) by repeatedly torching Spurs guard Stephon Castle, who had done a decent job keeping him contained during the teams’ epic seven-game Western Conference Finals in May. The two-time defending MVP scored at least 31 points in 32 of his 68 games last season overall, but like Jokić, he started the season hot, reaching the 31-point mark in four of his six games in October.
I just don’t trust Denver defensively. Overall, the Nuggets finished just 21st in defensive rating and opponent points per game in 2025/26, and their offseason moves effectively amounted to replacing a significantly above-average defensive rotation player (Peyton Watson) with one of the worst defenders in the league (DeMar DeRozan) and replacing Valančiūnas with a defender only marginally better. Gilgeous-Alexander cooked Christian Braun to the tune of 34 points on 12-for-22 (54.5%) shooting in 91.6 partial possessions, scoring at least 34 points in each matchup.
