Best Luther Burden III Prop Bet for Bears vs. Patriots on Thursday 10/22/26

The Chicago Bears and the New England Patriots were two of the more surprising teams in the NFL last season, as the Bears won the NFC North and the Patriots the AFC East en route to New England’s making the Super Bowl. This season, each team entered with expectations of a repeat postseason appearance, and despite a roller-coaster ride in the early part of the season, both teams are 4-2 and currently in playoff position.

Chicago will host the Patriots tonight at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday Night Football.

The Bears are three-point favorites for tonight’s matchup at DraftKings Sportsbook (-155 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 50.5. New England is +130 on the Moneyline.

Below, I’ve detailed my prop bet centered around Chicago’s WR1, Luther Burden III, for tonight’s nationally-televised showdown.

Best Luther Burden III Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook

Luther Burden III 60+ Receiving Yards (-104)

Burden has been remarkably consistent this season, averaging 60.2 yards per game. While his production varied widely on a week-to-week basis as a rookie, he’s garnered at least five targets in each game, playing a majority of offensive snaps in each of the first five weeks of the season. As a result, he’s had at least 60 yards in four of his six games, barely clearing the threshold on three occasions (with two games of 63 yards and one of 61). Although the Bears operate a pretty egalitarian offense, Burden clearly has head coach Ben Johnson’s trust.

Burden should continue making himself Caleb Williams’ most attractive target. This season, he’s averaged three yards of separation per targeted route and earned 0.8 more yards after contact per attempt than expected, per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. While wideout Kalif Raymond and tight end Colston Loveland have both gotten slightly more separation, neither has been as good after the catch as Burden. Burden ranks 30th among 115 qualified receivers by Pro Football Focus’ standards, the best on the team, and Williams — who ranks third in completion percentage over expectation — is solid at making the intermediate throws that Burden has made the most of this season.

On paper, the Patriots have a pretty good secondary, as they’ve limited opponents to the 11th-fewest passing yards overall and the 13th-fewest yards to wide receivers. However, New England will continue to be without Carlton Davis III, and in the last two games, it’s given up an average of 247.5 passing yards per game with Davis sidelined. It’s also possible that the Patriots will be without three-time First Team All-Pro safety Kevin Byard, who’s questionable with a chest injury. New England allowed 103 yards to rookie Omar Cooper Jr. last week, and Cooper got some Burden comparisons in the pre-Draft process.