We’ve officially passed the end of August and are into September, meaning the MLB’s postseason race is coming down to the wire. The Houston Astros are still defending a slim lead in a weak AL West, having won their weekend series. Tonight, they start a three-game weekend set against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have pushed their way back into the NL Wild Card picture.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Diamondbacks vs. Astros game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Diamondbacks vs. Astros prediction, preview
The Diamondbacks enter this game with a 74-67 record and a -1 run differential. They’re far from a real contender in a loaded NL, but they’ve gotten back into a Wild Card spot and have largely played quality baseball over the season’s second half. The Astros, meanwhile, have the sixth-best record in baseball over this same sample, though the overall record of 72-69 and a -38 run differential give them a shakier grip on the AL West.
RHP Merrill Kelly (9-12) starts for Arizona tonight. He has a 5.08 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP, amassing just 95 strikeouts over his 141.2 IP. His K% is 15.4% with a 10.4% BB%, so the K-BB% is a measly 5.0%. The rest of his underlying numbers don’t look good either – he has a second-percentile barrel rate and allows lots of hard contact.
It’s RHP Cristian Javier (1-5) on the bump for Houston here. His ERA is a whopping 6.45 with a 1.63 WHIP, far from what the club wants to see. He has struck out 42 through 44.2 IP, though, so the K% is a low-but-respectable 20.6% with a 9.3% BB%. His chase and whiff rates grade out around the 70th-75th percentile, but a first-percentile ground-ball rate makes life difficult.
The Diamondbacks’ offense was uninspiring for much of the season, but over the second half, the bats have sprung to life. Since the All-Star break in July, they rank sixth in total runs scored (212) and fifth in wRC+ with an OPS of .749, the fourth-best mark in baseball. Their ISO has notably come up to .163 while keeping the K% way low at 18.5%, so this is a very effective unit at the moment. They’re not great against right-handers on the full season’s sample, slashing .230/.304/.378, but they’ve been plenty effective lately.
The Astros’ bats haven’t been quite as good over the second half, but they certainly haven’t been bad. They rank 17th in runs scored (190), 12th in wRC+ and have an OPS of .713 that ranks 14th. The club continues to display good power with a .160 ISO, and they’re 10th in homers with 52 to the D-Backs’ 49 over this span. The Stros slash .241/.317/.412 against right-handed pitching, too.
Diamondbacks vs. Astros pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Astros as a -136 Moneyline favorite at home this evening, while the Diamondbacks are a +113 underdog on the road. The total is set at nine combined runs.
This is a game where the over simply makes too much sense. Over the second half of the campaign, the D-Backs’ offense ranks among the best in baseball while Houston’s continues to look respectable. The pitchers are both having rough years overall, and in the second half Kelly has a 4.50 ERA with a 1.44 WHIP, while Javier has a 4.60 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP. Yes, both of them have improved somewhat statistically, but they’re still performing rather poorly in the grand scheme of things and get dates against difficult matchups tonight. At a hitter-friendly Daikin Park, I think this run total can come close to nine before both starters are even out of the game.
