Another year, another shot for the Dodgers (82-57) to add a championship to their ever-growing collection. The back-to-back defending champions come into tonight’s game with newly acquired ace Tarik Skubal on the mound. Los Angeles will attempt to defend its home turf tonight against the Cardinals (70-70). What’s the savvy play for bettors during Thursday’s matchup?
The Dodgers are favorites (-311) over the Cardinals; the over/under is set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between St. Louis and Los Angeles on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cardinals vs. Dodgers pick, best bet today
- Dodgers over 4.5 total runs (-135): Although the Cardinals can swing it, expecting more than a couple of runs against Skubal is difficult at best. In comparison, Matthews is entering the lion’s den against an elite lineup. Expect a handful of runs from the Dodgers tonight.
Cardinals vs. Dodgers prediction, preview
Quinn Matthews gets the nod tonight for the Cardinals. It’ll be the southpaw’s fifth career outing, and his most difficult on paper. Over 19.2 innings this season, he’s recorded a 5.03 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and 20 strikeouts. Those numbers, especially the WHIP, aren’t exactly encouraging. Base hits (10.5 H/9) and walks (3.7 BB/9) have held back St. Louis’ hurler, although he has done a stellar job at limiting homers. Matthews’ repertoire isn’t anything out of the ordinary: a four-seam fastball, slider, changeup and curveball mix. The youngster allowed just one run over 5.2 innings against the Pirates last week.
There’s some reason for optimism going forward when it comes to Matthews. Unfortunately for the 25-year-old, Thursday’s matchup does him no favors. The Dodgers are nothing short of a juggernaut on offense, ranking near the top of most major hitting categories. They’re fifth in runs scored (684), eighth in homers (171), second in batting average (.258) and second in OPS (.758). Even worse, the defending champions tend to rake against opposing southpaws. Los Angeles has posted the league’s sixth-best OPS against left-handed pitching (.744). The Dodgers average the sport’s third-most walks per game (3.75), bad news for any pitcher with shaky command.
As previously mentioned, it’ll be Skubal toeing the slab tonight. It’s been a predictably stellar start to the All-Star’s Los Angeles tenure. During five outings with his new club, the lefty has recorded a 3.00 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 37 strikeouts (11.1 K/9). There’s not much more that needs to be said when it comes to the superstar’s dominance. He ranks within the 90th percentile or better in xERA (2.95), chase rate (36.8%), whiff rate (31.9%), strikeout rate (30.9%) and walk rate (4.2%). Like many aces, Skubal does give up the occasional hard hit ball. Still, that feels like nitpicking; it’s hard to dispute that he’s the best pitcher on Earth.
Taking on an arm of this magnitude is a challenge for any club. To be fair, the Cardinals aren’t pushovers at the plate. They’ve scored the ninth-most runs in baseball over their last ten contests (53). Big bats such as Jordan Walker (133 wRC+), Alec Burleson (125 wRC+) and Ivan Herrera (109 wRC+) need to be kept in check. To boot, St. Louis hitters have delivered the league’s fifth-best OPS on the road against left-handed pitching. Still, Skubal isn’t any old southpaw; expecting an offensive outburst tonight is wishful thinking.
Best Bet: Dodgers over 4.5 total runs (-135)
Finding any kind of value is almost impossible in this one. The Cardinals stand little chance against Skubal, making them a difficult group to back. However, the Dodgers are overwhelming favorites at home. Instead, the best play available might be to fade Matthews. Facing an elite lineup on the road, it’s difficult to see him keeping Los Angeles in check. A mediocre St. Louis bullpen gives even more incentive for bettors to back the defending champs at the plate.
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