We’ve got a six-game slate for Thursday’s MLB action.
Let’s find some studs and values for your MLB DFS lineups on DraftKings. This article was written before lineups were announced.
Make your DraftKings MLB DFS picks here: MLB $100K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Tarik Skubal, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals ($10,500) — If there were a better option up top, I’d likely pivot off Skubal because St. Louis has been good on the road and against lefties. That said, it’s a small slate and, after two mediocre starts to begin his Dodgers career, it looks like Skubal has gotten more comfortable, putting up 23.1 and 32.2 FPTS in the last two starts. Good pitching beats good offense, right?
Value
Kade Anderson, Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics ($7,200) — Anderson has made two starts since getting called up to the majors, finishing with 12.6 and 8.2 FPTS. He went 5.2 and 4.1 innings while throwing 81 and 85 pitches. The numbers don’t look great so far: a 5.59 FIP, a 7.3% K-BB%, and two home runs allowed in 10 innings. That said, he had a 1.78 FIP and a 36.6% K-BB% in 93.1 Double-A innings this season. So far in the majors, he’s allowing an 85.9 mph average exit velocity and a 7.1% barrel rate. It’s the matchup that is most appealing, as the Athletics are fifth in strikeouts against left-handed pitching. They’re also one of MLB’s most inept offenses on the road, sitting dead last in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+.
INFIELD
Stud
Carter Jensen, Kansas City Royals vs. Miami Marlins ($4,200) — Jensen is batting leadoff for the Royals. The catcher has posted a 91.1 mph average exit velocity, a 10.3% K-BB%, and a 73.8 mph bat speed. He has mashed 16 of his 19 home runs off right-handed pitching, owning a 105 wRC+ and a .217 ISO against them. He also owns a 109 wRC+ and a .201 ISO at home. Sandy Alcantara throws bullets, but the strikeout rate is only 17.9%. Against lefties, he has allowed 12 home runs with a 4.02 FIP and a 10% K-BB%. Alcantara’s FIP is also significantly higher on the road (4.40) than at home (2.99).
Value
Miguel Rojas, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals ($2,600) — The numbers are meh at first glance for Rojas, but he’s very good against left-handed pitching. In 134 plate appearances, he’s slashing .314/.358/.479 with a 129 wRC+ and a .165 ISO. He’s also much better at home, posting a 122 wRC+ and a .140 ISO. Quinn Mathews has pitched much better than the 5.03 ERA indicates, but righties are slashing .297/.365/.391 with a 9.5% K-BB% against him.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Wilyer Abreu, Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles ($5,300) — Abreu bats third or fourth for a red-hot Red Sox squad. Through 595 plate appearances, he’s racked up 23 home runs, 78 runs, 70 RBIs and eight stolen bases. The average exit velocity is 89.8 mph, the launch angle is 18.6 degrees, the barrel rate is 12.2%, and the bat speed is 73.8 mph. Against right-handed pitching, he’s crushed 17 home runs with a .213 ISO and a 104 wRC+. Brandon Young has a 4.67 FIP and a paltry 4.9% K-BB% against lefties.
Value
Lazaro Montes, Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics ($3,200) — Montes has played one game since being called up, and all he did was go 2-for-4 with a home run, two RBIs, and a walk. The average exit velocity is 96.8 mph, the launch angle is 29.7 degrees, the barrel rate is 33.3%, and the bat speed is 76.5 mph. Small-sample alert, for sure, but it shows the toolbox he’s working with. Montes is on the strong side of a platoon, but the Athletics will trot out righty Jack Perkins to the mound; Perkins is allowing a 4.96 FIP to lefties. The K-BB% is decent at 16.8%, but he’s served up 10 home runs to lefties. This is more of a price play, but there’s undeniable upside given Montes’s strong first impression.
