The Detroit Red Wings visit the Tampa Bay Lightning on Tuesday night, with puck drop set for 7:00 p.m. ET at Benchmark International Arena. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Tampa Bay is a -265 favorite on the Moneyline, with the total set at O/U 6.5 goals.
Below, I’ll break down the matchup and provide my top Lightning vs. Red Wings prediction and best bet.
Lightning vs. Red Wings Odds
| Market | Detroit Red Wings | Tampa Bay Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +215 | -265 |
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-115) | -1.5 (-105) |
| Total | Over 6.5 (+110) | Under 6.5 (-130) |
Lightning vs. Red Wings Betting Preview
Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook
Tampa Bay is a perfect 6-0-0 at home this season, with four of those six wins coming by two goals or more. The Lightning outshoot opponents at a high rate, ranking fifth in 5v5 Corsi% (54.3%), and their 43 high-danger shots are tied for fifth in the NHL. Nikita Kucherov is running the show (and causing drama with his trade request) with 14 assists and 18 points, while Brandon Hagel and Jake Guentzel share the team lead with eight goals apiece.
The power play has been the one sore spot despite all that talent, ranking 28th at 15.2%. Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to start, but he’s still searching for his usual elite form after allowing four or more goals in three of his past four starts. His 3.00 GAA and .877 SV% are the worst marks of his career, and his -2.8 GSAx and -0.55% SV% above expected rank 57th and 47th, respectively, among 74 goaltenders.
Detroit Red Wings Outlook
Detroit has been better than its 7-5-3 record suggests at 5v5, controlling 54.7% of the xGoals (T-7th) while allowing just 24.5 shots per game, tied for the third-fewest in the NHL. The Red Wings have also been solid on the road at 3-1-2, and their power play ranks tied for 11th at 23.5%. Alex DeBrincat leads the team with 16 points, and Viktor Arvidsson has a team-high eight goals.
The tough part is that Detroit is on the second night of a back-to-back after beating Florida 5-3 last night, and with Daniil Tarasov making that start, John Gibson is expected to be in net. Gibson allowed five goals on just 15 shots in a 5-4 loss to St. Louis on Saturday, and he sports a 4-5-1 record with an .860 SV% and 3.37 GAA, ranking 70th in GSAx (-5.7) and 56th in SV% above expected (-1.20%). The Red Wings are also without Dylan Larkin, who was suspended without pay last Thursday after deciding he would no longer play for them, and he isn’t expected to suit up again until he’s traded. Detroit has gone 2-1 since.
Lightning vs. Red Wings Prediction and Best Bet
Tampa Bay won three of four meetings last season, and tonight sets up even better for the Lightning, with Detroit playing on tired legs and turning to its weaker goaltender. You won’t catch me laying the -265 Moneyline, but at -105, I’ll back Tampa Bay to win by multiple goals on home ice, where it has done so four times already this season.
Best Bet: Lightning Puck Line -1.5 (-105)
Advanced stats courtesy of MoneyPuck.
