Last season, the Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies ended the first half of the season with a three-game series in Cincinnati, and the Reds took two out of three games on their way to ultimately sneaking into the playoffs. One year later, the teams will meet again, this time in Colorado, and Cincinnati needs an absolute miracle if it wants to make this fall’s tournament.
The opening game of the series is set for 8:40 p.m. ET. The Reds will start Brady Singer, and the Rockies will start Gabriel Hughes.
Let’s break down this clash with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies Best Bets
- Colorado Rockies Moneyline (-115): Despite his improvement as of late, Brady Singer has had a rough season, and his tendency to give up barrels and his issues on the road don’t bode well at Coors Field. I’ll take the unknown quantity (Gabriel Hughes) over the known mediocre one.
- Hunter Goodman 2+ Total Bases (-131): With all due respect to Mickey Moniak, Goodman is the Rockies’ best hitter, and he’s seeing the ball quite well, posting a .994 OPS since the start of June. He’s recorded a .588 slugging percentage against righty sinkers this season.
Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies prediction, preview
For a while, the entire NL Central was over .500, but Cincinnati fell off that pace in early June, and it’s kept losing since, falling to nine games below .500 and eight games behind the Miami Marlins for the final Wild Card spot. Elly De La Cruz’s three-week absence at the start of June didn’t help, but the Reds kept losing even after he returned. For the season, Cincinnati has the league’s ninth-worst offense, even with De La Cruz posting an .839 OPS and Sal Stewart making the All-Star team as a rookie, as it has five hitters with more than 100 plate appearances below the Mendoza Line. Even the Reds’ pitching hasn’t been good, as it ranks eighth-to-last in ERA despite Chase Burns producing at a Cy Young-worthy level. Emilio Pagán and Tony Santillan have been the primary closer options, but both have ERA’s above 5. Given Cincinnati’s negative-60 run differential, perhaps it was only a matter of time that it fell out of the playoff race.
Meanwhile, the Rockies entered the season with no expectations after finishing with at least 100 losses in each of the previous three seasons. By that measure, this season has arguably been a success, as there are two American League teams with worse records, and they’re on pace to finish 64-98, which would be their best mark since 2022. For the season, Colorado still has the fifth-highest OPS, as seven different players have at least 100 plate appearances and an OPS+ north of 100, and while playing half of their games at Coors Field certainly helps, the Rockies have even had the 17th-best offense on the road. Expectedly, though, Colorado’s pitching has still been poor; it ranks in the bottom five by both rotation and bullpen ERA, and while converting starter Antonio Senzatela into a setup man proved brilliant, signings Michael Lorenzen, José Quintana, and Tomoyuki Sugano haven’t exactly been stellar. The Rockies may never have an elite staff because of their hitter-friendly ballpark, but they’ll have to climb closer to league-average if they want to finally complete their rebuild.
Singer hasn’t had a great season, as he’s tied for the MLB lead with nine losses, but some of the defeats weren’t his fault, as he has gotten zero runs of run support in each of his last two outings. He’s actually been in respectable form since the start of June, giving up two or fewer earned runs in five of six appearances and pitching to a 2.79 ERA over that span. Still, advanced stats aren’t too kind to him; he ranks in the ninth percentile in expected ERA and the 12th percentile in expected batting average. Additionally, he’s really struggled to induce soft contact, ranking in just the 13th percentile in barrel rate, and while Colorado ranks fifth-to-last in that stat, that never plays at Coors Field. He also struggles to induce chases or strikeouts, which could mitigate some of the Rockies’ biggest weaknesses. Plus, the splits are not in his favor; he’s recorded a putrid 6.75 ERA in his nine road starts, and Colorado has expectedly been better at home.
Hughes could have the advantage in the starting pitching matchup, but his sample size is tiny. He’s made one career start and one relief appearance, pitching three scoreless innings against the San Francisco Giants and holding the Los Angeles Dodgers to four hits and three earned runs in six frames. He spent most of the season in Triple-A with Albuquerque, pitching to a 5.31 ERA at that level, but he ended his stint at that level with three consecutive scoreless starts. His advanced numbers from his nine-inning MLB stint look good; he’s yet to allow a barrel, and he incentivized chases at a top-decile rate, which is impressive given that the Dodgers chase at the second-lowest rate. His struggles to produce ground balls (which should be sustainable given his reliance on four-seam fastballs) could be problematic at Coors Field, but he’s been far better at home in the minors despite pitching in high-altitude Albuquerque, and the Reds have been marginally worse at home.
Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies pick, best bet
Best Bet: Colorado Rockies Moneyline (-115)
The Rockies aren’t usually favored (in fact, this is just the second time all season in which they have been), but Hughes’ hot form in Triple-A over the last month and a half carried over to MLB, and I’ll back him until he proves otherwise. Singer’s problems are ripe to be exploited at Coors Field.
Strong Lean: Hunter Goodman 2+ Total Bases (-131)
If Colorado seeks to sell at the deadline, Goodman could fetch quite the haul. A two-time All-Star at only 26, he’s hit 27 home runs this season, and in a 15-game stretch shortly before the All-Star break that included 12 games at home, he slugged .625.
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