The NCAA Tournament is right around the corner, and conference tournaments are in full swing. Tipping off as part of the ACC Conference Tournament, the Miami Hurricanes will face off with the Virginia Cavaliers in a semifinal matchup.
This is the second time these teams have faced off this season. The first took place on February 21st, which resulted in an 86-83 win by Virginia. Miami pushed a lead as large as 11, and both teams had impressive moments in this matchup, but Virginia knocked down three free throws with just three seconds remaining to secure the win.
Looking at the odds for tonight, Virginia enters as a 3.5-point favorite and holds -162 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. Miami holds +136 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at O/U 143.5 points.
Miami vs. Virginia prediction, preview
The Miami Hurricanes hold a 25-7 record on the season and have gone 13-5 in ACC Conference play. After losing to Louisville in the final regular-season matchup, Miami won in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals in its previous game. The Hurricanes have won eight of their last 10 games overall, with the matchup against Virginia being the only other loss across this stretch. On the season, Miami has gone 17-14 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 18 of 31 games.
Malik Reneau headlines the scoring for the Hurricanes, posting averages of 19.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per game. Tre Donaldson is not far behind, adding 16.8 points, 5.9 assists, and 3.6 rebounds per contest. Shelton Henderson and Tru Washington each also average in double figures, combining for 25.7 points and 8.9 rebounds per game between them. Ernest Udeh Jr., Dante Allen, and Timotej Malovec each also play notable roles in the rotation.
As a team, Miami is scoring 82.6 points per game, which ranks 46th in the nation. The Hurricanes also rank 32nd in offensive rating, 11th in team field goal percentage, and 112th in team three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 70.8 points per game against the Hurricanes, which ranks 96th among the 365 qualifying D1 teams. Jai Lucas’ squad also ranks 63rd in defensive rating, 181st in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 279th in opponents’ three-point percentage allowed.
The Virginia Cavaliers hold a 28-4 record on the season and have gone 15-3 in ACC play. Their four losses have come against Butler, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, and Duke this season. They enter this matchup on a three-game winning streak and have won 12 of their last 13 games. On the season, Virginia has gone 16-16 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 19 of 32 games.
Thijs De Ridder headlines the production for the Cavaliers, posting averages of 15.8 points and 6.2 rebounds per game. Malik Thomas adds 12.2 points and 4.1 rebounds, while Same Lewis is the lone other player to average in double figures with 10.4 points and 3.6 rebounds of his own. Chance Mallory, Jacari White, Johann Grunloh, and Ugonna Onyenso each also play notable roles on the team.
Ryan Odom has maintained a high standard of play in his first year as head coach. Virginia is scoring 80.9 points per game, which ranks 71st among D1 teams. The Cavaliers also rank 31st in offensive rating, 123rd in team field goal percentage, and 77th in team three-point percentage while launching the 31st-most perimeter shots in the nation. Defensively, opponents are scoring 68.4 points per game against Virginia, which ranks 48th in the country. The Cavaliers also rank 48th in defensive rating, 13th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 44th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Miami vs. Virginia pick, best bet
It was an entertaining back-and-forth battle between these two teams in the first matchup. Both teams shot the ball uncharacteristically well, as each shot 50% on three-point attempts and Virginia shot 58% from the floor overall. Miami out-rebounded Virginia 30-23, outscored it in the paint 40-30, and pushed a lead to as many as 11, but was unable to get the win. Tre Donaldson fouled Chance Mallory on a three-point attempt with three seconds remaining, which sealed the game. Miami was also unable to even get a shot off after this to seal the loss.
Expect this to have left a sour taste in the Hurricanes’ mouths and for them to be hungry for revenge in this game. Virginia does an excellent job controlling the pace of games, and Miami will have to match this. The Hurricanes are more effective in a fast-paced matchup, and if they can speed up the game, it will play to their favor. My lean is toward Miami to have enough in the tank to produce the outright upset.
However, I am backing the game total to remain under in this game. The rate at which both these teams shot the ball in the first matchup is unsustainable.
Expect the size and interior presence of Ugonna Onyenso and Johann Grunloh to cause issues for Miami for stretches. Grunloh tallied five blocks in the first matchup, and the two combined for 161 rejections on the season. If the Hurricanes cannot have success attacking the basket, their entire offensive approach changes. Miami ranks 320th in the country in three-point attempts per game and 112th in perimeter efficiency. It shot just 5-for-13 from deep in its previous win over Louisville, and tired legs will be a factor playing on the second night of a back-to-back.
On the other side of the matchup, Virginia hoists a significant number of three-pointers but has struggled a bit with its efficiency as the season has progressed. The Cavaliers have shot just 33.2% from deep in ACC play, which is the third-worst in the conference. The Cavaliers rank 17th in the nation in offensive rebounding, but Miami is the best defensive rebounding team in the ACC.
It will be a high-intensity matchup with a trip to the ACC title game on the line, and expect every possession to matter. The game total has remained under in 12 of Virginia’s 19 conference matchups and in eight of its last 12 matchups overall. The under has also cashed in all four matchups Miami has played at a neutral site, is 5-1 against ranked opponents, and 8-2 when it is an underdog. Count on both sides bringing their best effort, and for the 143.5 game total being too high.
