Facing off as part of the Big Ten Conference Tournament, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights will play the Minnesota Golden Gophers tonight.
These two teams faced off once already this season, which took place on February 21st. Minnesota produced a comfortable 80-61 win in this matchup. The Golden Gophers stretched the lead to as large as 24 and led for 85% of the game.
Looking at the odds for tonight, Minnesota enters as a 6.5-point favorite and holds -250 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Rutgers holds +205 odds of pulling off the outright victory, with the game total set at 134.5.
Rutgers vs. Minnesota prediction, preview
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights enter with a 13-18 record on the season, and have gone 6-14 in Big Ten Conference play. They enter this matchup coming off a victory over Penn State in the previous game, but have lost 10 of their past 14 games overall. On the season, Rutgers has gone 16-15 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 18 of their 31 games.
Tariq Francis leads the team in scoring with 16.9 points and 2.8 assists per game on the season. Dylan Grant is the lone other player to average in double figures, adding 10.0 points and 4.4 rebounds per game. Darren Buchanan Jr. adds 8.5 points and 3.6 rebounds while shooting 36.4% on three-point attempts, while Jamichael Davis pitches in 7.1 points and 3.0 rebounds of his own. Kaden Powers, Lino Mark, and Harun Zrno also play key roles in the rotation.
Steve Pikiell’s squad is scoring 70.9 points per game, which ranks 288th out of the 365 qualifying D1 teams. Rutgers also ranks 274th in offensive rating, 332nd in team field goal percentage, and 271st in team three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 75.5 points per game against the Scarlet Knights, which ranks 227th in the country. They also rank 308th in defensive rating, 287th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 312th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
The Minnesota Golden Gophers hold a 15-17 record on the season and have gone 8-12 in Big Ten play. They defeated Northwestern 67-66 in the previous game and are 4-2 across their past six matchups. On the season, Minnesota has gone 14-17 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 19 of their 31 qualifying games.
Cade Tyson headlines the production for Minnesota, averaging 19.5 points, 5.4 rebounds and 2.2 assists, while shooting 42.1% from beyond the three-point arc. Jaylen Crocker-Johnson is second on the team in scoring with 13.4 points and 6.8 rebounds, but is sidelined with a foot injury. He joins Chansey Willis Jr. and Robert Vaihola, who will each miss the remainder of the season and have been sidelined since November. Langston Reynolds, Isaac Asuma and Bobby Durkin also each average in double figures.
Niko Medved’s squad ranks 307th in the country in scoring by averaging 70.1 points per game. They rank 169th in offensive rating, 152nd in field goal percentage, and 160th in three-point percentage. Minnesota is allowing 68.4 points per game, which ranks 49th in the country. The Golden Gophers also rank 199th in defensive rating, 209th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 233rd in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Rutgers vs. Minnesota pick, best bet
Neither one of these teams is exactly thrilled with its outlook on the year. Both are limping to the finish line to an extent and have legitimate concerns that opposing teams are capable of exploiting.
Injuries have continued to be a problem for this Minnesota team, which had the potential to make some noise when they were at full strength. But they still had no trouble taking care of business against this Rutgers team, winning by 19 points and covering the 8.5-point spread in comfortable fashion. The Golden Gophers shot 60% from the field, 58% on three-point attempts, and out-rebounded them 31-22 in the matchup.
This was Minnesota’s most efficient shooting game of the entire season, and some level of regression must be expected as they face off for the second time. But it also speaks to the vulnerabilities of this Rutgers defense, which has failed to consistently get stops all season. My lean is toward Minnesota producing another convincing victory and covering the 6.5-point spread tonight.
However, I am backing the game total to remain under the 134.5 line in this matchup. The only high-level unit in this matchup is the Golden Gophers’ defense. They do an excellent job limiting opponents’ trips to the line, preventing additional offensive opportunities, and rank 49th in the country in points allowed overall. Minnesota has held teams to 70 points or fewer in 16 of its 31 games this season and has held an opponent to as few as 43 points. Facing a Rutgers team that ranks 288th in the country in scoring and has been held to 70 points or fewer in 16 of their 31 games themselves, expect points to be difficult to come by.
But Minnesota is no offensive stalwart themselves and has increasingly struggled to generate consistent offense as the injuries have piled up. The 80 points they scored against Rutgers in the first matchup are the most they have scored in a game since January 4th, and they are coming off a loss to Indiana a week ago in which they were limited to just 47 points.
Expect both these teams to be content playing at a slow pace and for each side to have difficulties finding a rhythm offensively. 134.5 is a fairly low total, but fitting based on the offensive struggles of both sides. Expect the first team to crack 58 to have a clear path to winning, and for this game total to be too high based on the offensive struggles that each of these teams possesses. Buckle up for some slow-paced old-school basketball and count on this 134.5 game total to be too high.
