We’ve reached mid-March, which means conference tournaments are in full swing across the college basketball world. Tonight’s CAA Championship Game pits the No. 4 Monmouth Hawks against the No. 3 Hofstra Pride with a berth to the NCAA Tournament on the line. Which team will punch their ticket to the Big Dance once this one tips off at 7 p.m. EST?
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monmouth vs. Hofstra on Tuesday, March 10.
Monmouth vs. Hofstra prediction, preview
Monmouth Hawks
The Hawks earned the fourth seed in the CAA tournament with an 18-14 overall record and 11-7 mark in the conference. After downing No. 5 Drexel and No. 9 Campbell to get here, they’re now just a win shy of their first NCAA Tournament berth since the 2005-06 campaign.
It’s surprising to even see Monmouth in this spot given that the program ranks sixth among CAA schools in NERTG at -0.89, falling 179th in the KenPom Rankings. The Hawks did go a respectable 8-4 against Quad 3 teams and 10-6 against Quad 4s, but they fell to Hofstra in the last meeting earlier this season.
Monmouth produces 72.1 PPG, shooting 43.7% overall and 34.4% from three. The Hawks average 13.8 assists with a 1.215 AST/TO ratio as well, and the team’s ORTG falls 228th in Division I hoops. They pull down 34.6 rebounds per game, too. Defense is this team’s strong suit though, allowing 70.8 PPG to opponents with the 127th-ranked DRTG. Notably, the Hawks are quite disruptive on that end and sit 37th in opponent turnovers per game.
Kavion McClain has appeared in just 10 games for the Hawks but paces the roster with 16.9 points and 5.4 assists per game. Jason Rivera-Torres posts 15.8 points and a team-high 8.1 rebounds, also pitching in 3.0 assists. Monmouth has another pair of double-digit scorers in Justin Ray and Stafanos Spartalis, who bring 11.3 and 10.5 PPG, respectively.
Hofstra Pride
Meanwhile, Hofstra looked a good deal better this season with a 22-10 record on the campaign with a 12-6 conference mark. It’s been even longer since the Pride made the NCAA Tournament with their last appearance in 2000-01, but downing No. 6 William & Mary and No. 7 Towson in this CAA tourney now have them positioned to make history.
At a glance, Hofstra paces all CAA programs with a +9.66 NETRTG that puts it 86th in the KenPom rankings. The program notched an 8-4 record against Quad 3 sides this season with a 10-3 mark against Quad 4s as well, and as mentioned earlier, the Pride beat Monmouth earlier in the campaign.
The Pride have an offense worthy of respect, averaging 74.5 PPG with the 90th-ranked ORTG. They dish out only 12.4 assists per game with a 1.167 AST/TO ratio, and while shooting just 43.6% from the field is rather poor, their 37.1% mark from beyond the arc ranks 29th in the nation. They’re strong on the glass with 38.2 boards a game, good for 36th overall, and the defense is what’s really worth writing home about. Hofstra gives up just 67.5 PPG with the 93rd-ranked DRTG, allowing the 11th-lowest eFG% to opponents.
The Pride are paced by a star scorer in guard Cruz Davis, who averages 20.4 points and shoots 40.4% from three-point range while leading the team with 4.6 assists and 1.1 steals. Preston Edmead is the lone other scorer in double figures with 15.5 points, also averaging 4.4 dimes. Biggie Patterson, German Plotnikov and Joshua DeCady all play key roles in the rotation.
Monmouth vs. Hofstra pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Hofstra as a 4.5-point favorite with -192 odds on the Moneyline. Monmouth holds +160 odds of an outright upset with the game total set at 134.5 combined points.
These sides met back on January 31, a contest in which the Pride dominated to the tune of a 73-57 victory. Granted, the Hawks didn’t have McClain for that matchup, but it’s still noteworthy that they were held to just 23-of-60 shooting (38.3%) and a 3-for-18 night from three (16.7%).
The Hofstra defense has largely put in work night in and night out this season, forcing poor shooting nights from opponents and outrebounding them in the process. Even with McClain in the lineup tonight, it’s tough to see another outcome beyond one that has the Pride covering here. The spread could probably be an extra couple of points wider given how Hofstra is 20-11 ATS overall and 13-8 when operating as a favorite. While the Pride did win by just three points in their most recent contest, they won by at least five points in five straight prior to it and have been hot as of late.
Given the defensive advantage and track record this season, I like Hofstra to cover pretty handily this evening. I’m taking them at -4.5 but would consider alt lines to push that line even further in the Pride’s favor as they punch a ticket to March Madness.
