We’ve nearly reached mid-March, which means conference tournaments are in full swing across the college basketball world. Out in the West Coast Conference semifinals, the No. 4 seed Oregon State Beavers take on the No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs, who are 12th in the nation in the latest edition of the AP rankings. Will this contest be close, or will we see more dominance by the Zags this evening at 9 p.m. EST?
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Oregon State vs. Gonzaga on Monday, March 9.
Oregon State vs. Gonzaga prediction, preview
Oregon State Beavers
Former Pac-12 member Oregon State is in the midst of its second season in the West Coast Conference but is yet to truly contend, going just 9-9 in conference play this year with a 17-15 overall record. The Beavers are just 179th in the KenPom rankings with a -1.02 NETRTG, and while 1-3 against Quad 1 teams and 1-4 against Quad 2s, they do have a win over Arizona State this season as their signature victory.
However, such a performance over the Sun Devils won’t prepare them for tonight. Oregon State averages 71.6 PPG, shooting only 43.0% from the field and 35.4% from three. Moreover, the Beavers dish out just 14.0 assists with a pedestrian 1.173 AST/TO ratio, and they’re poor on the boards with only 32.4 per contest. Defensively, this roster concedes 74.4 PPG to opponents. At 299th in adjusted tempo, playing slow is part of the plan, but it hasn’t translated to much success and also means that the Beavers can end up in quite the hole if they fall behind early.
The headliner of this rotation is Josiah Lake II, who averages a clean 13.2 points, 4.1 rebounds and 4.2 assists while shooting 39.1% from three-point range. There’s only one other double-digit scorer on the roster though, with Isaiah Sy producing 10.1 points and 4.5 boards on a very inefficient 34.5% FG%. Dez White and Johan Munch also play key roles in the starting five.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
The program on the other side of the matchup is essentially an opposite in most respects. Gonzaga has dominated this conference for years and earned top billing in this tournament with a 16-2 WCC record along with an impressive 28-3 mark on the campaign as a whole. The Bulldogs are 10th in the KenPom rankings with a +28.41 NETRTG. At 6-2 against Quad 1 teams and 4-0 against Quad 2s, a Quad 3 challenger like Oregon State may not pose a significant threat here even at a neutral site.
The Zags bring one of the best two-way rosters in the sport with 86.0 PPG, good for 16th in the nation. A 51.1% FG% ranks third in Division I, though a 34.0% 3P% does lag far behind. The Bulldogs also issue 18.2 assists with a 1.874 AST/TO ratio that falls fourth overall, and they’re dominant on the glass with 40.2 boards a night, 13th in the country. The defense is just as strong with 66.3 PPG allowed to opponents, 17th-fewest, and the 14.7 turnovers averaged by opponents are eighth-best as well.
The Gonzaga attack is led by forward Graham Ike, who posts 19.7 points and a team-high 8.3 rebounds on a FG% of 56.4%. His play has been excellent with a heavy workload, especially while second-leading scorer Braden Huff remains sidelined due to injury. Tyon Grant-Foster brings 11.1 points with 5.1 assists per game, and role players such as Emmanuel Innocenti and Jalen Warley fill important roles as well.
Oregon State vs. Gonzaga pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Gonzaga as a long 20.5-point favorite with the game total set at 144.5 combined points.
Last time these teams met back on February 7, the Zags won the matchup handily by a 20-point margin at 81-61. Ike dropped a staggering 35 points in that one while Grant-Foster had 15, but no other Bulldog scored more than eight points. Still, they shot 57.1% as a team and outrebounded the Beavers 28-15 as well.
If there’s any bet that stands out tonight, it’s probably the under on the total of 144.5. The first contests between these teams snuck in under that margin and Oregon State does like to slow the tempo down as much as possible, which could keep scoring down tonight. Gonzaga should win without much of a real challenge, but the spread is just very wide and the fact the under has cashed in 21/31 games for the Bulldogs this year makes me feel confident that we’ll see a similar outcome tonight. They should dominate at both ends of the floor, so even if they have a big scoring night themselves, they should hold the Beavers in check for this under to cash once more.
