Closing down Monday’s college basketball action, the Santa Clara Broncos will take on the Saint Mary’s Gaels in the West Coast Conference Tournament.
Santa Clara entered the conference tournament as the third seed and defeated Pacific on Sunday, while Saint Mary’s had a first-round bye as the second seed in the WCC bracket.
These programs split a pair of meetings during the regular season, each winning at home. Santa Clara tallied a 62-54 win on Jan. 17 before Saint Mary’s answered with an 86-67 walloping on Feb. 25.
Saint Mary’s enters as a 4.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Santa Clara sits as a +164 underdog. The game total is set at 148.5 points.
Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary’s prediction, preview
Santa Clara went 24-7 during the regular season with a 15-3 mark in conference play. The program advanced in the WCC tournament after Sunday’s 76-68 quarterfinal win over Pacific. The Broncos are 17-14 against the spread and have gone over in 20 of 31 games.
Christian Hammond leads the team with 15.9 points per game, shooting 39.8% from beyond the arc. Elijah Mahi adds 14 points and 4.7 rebounds. Allen Graves is the lone other Bronco averaging double figures with 11.7 points and a team-high 6.4 rebounds, while shooting 42.5% from deep. Sash Gavalyugov, Bukky Oboye, Brenton Knapper, and Jake Ensminger each also play a notable role in the rotation.
Herb Sendek’s squad ranks 30th nationally in scoring, 34th in offensive rating, 72nd in field-goal percentage, 157th in three-point percentage, and 23rd in three-point attempts. Santa Clara sits 132nd in points allowed, 81st in defensive rating, 228th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 103rd in opponent perimeter accuracy.
Saint Mary’s is ranked 21st in the country in the AP Poll with a 27-4 overall record. The program has a notable rest advantage as it last played on Feb. 28. The Gaels have gone 20-10 against the spread — no odds were offered for their matchup with D-II UC Merced — and have fallen under the point total in 18 of 30 games.
Paulius Murauskas leads the Gaels with 18.6 points, along with 7.7 rebounds per game. Mikey Lewis pitches in 13.9 points, and Joshua Dent adds 13.3 points and a team-high 5.6 assists while shooting 40.4% from downtown. Andrew McKeever pulls down a WCC-leading 9.1 rebounds, also contributing 8.3 points. Dillan Shaw, Liam Campbell, Harry Wessels, and Tony Duckett round out most of the notable rotation.
Randy Bennett’s team ranks 116th in scoring, 48th in offensive rating, 122nd in field-goal percentage, 10th in three-point percentage, and 16th in rebounds per game. On the other end, the Gaels have allowed the nation’s seventh-fewest points per game. They also sit 12th in defensive rating, 19th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 26th in opponent three-point percentage.
Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary’s pick, best bet
These teams split their regular-season matchups, with the pair of games producing drastically different outcomes. Santa Clara edged out a 62-54 win in the first matchup, holding Saint Mary’s to just 31% shooting and 18% from the perimeter. But in the second matchup, the Gaels dominated the rebounding battle, 51-21, while shooting 49% from the field and 42% from three en route to an 86-67 route.
There’s a lingering possibility that Saint Mary’s had too much rest with the bye, thwarting its momentum while Santa Clara notched a statement win over Pacific in the WCC quarterfinal.
However, I’m backing Saint Mary’s to comfortably cover the 4.5-point spread in the trilogy bout. The program is 13-5 against the spread in conference play and 17-9 ATS as a favorite this season.
Saint Mary’s appears to be the more complete team, bolstered by an elite defense. The Gaels’ loss to Santa Clara was their worst shooting display of the season, one that felt more self-inflicted than anything. Saint Mary’s responded emphatically in the rematch, and it should do the same Monday night.
Expect Saint Mary’s to set the tempo and turn this into a shootout. The Gaels’ stout defense should swarm a Santa Clara team playing its second game in as many days.
Saint Mary’s is the better overall team, with more rest and plenty of motivation. Look for them to take care of business in spread-covering fashion.
