The college basketball season is winding down with a loaded slate of games taking place all across Saturday’s slate. One of the later games is between the Northwestern Wildcats and Minnesota Golden Gophers.
This is the second matchup between these two teams this season. Minnesota won 84-78 in the first matchup, which took place on Jan. 3.
Minnesota enters as a 3.5-point favorite and -175 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Northwestern is +145, with the game total set at 131.5.
Northwestern vs. Minnesota prediction, preview
Northwestern has dropped to 13-17 on the season, and has gone just 5-14 in the Big Ten. It enters this matchup coming off a 70-66 loss to Purdue. This loss snapped a three-game winning streak, but the Wildcats lost five consecutive matchups before this. Northwestern is 13-17 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 16 of its 30 games played.
Chris Collins’ squad is scoring 73.4 points per game, which ranks 248th among DI teams. Northwestern also ranks 152nd in offensive rating, 149th in field-goal percentage, and 264th in three-point percentage. The Wildcats allow 72.4 points per game, which ranks 138th in the country. Northwestern also ranks 236th in defensive rating, 141st in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 140th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Nick Martinelli leads the Big Ten with 22.7 points per game, while shooting 42.1% from three. Arrinten Page adds 10.2 points and 4.5 rebounds, while Jayden Reid averages 10.1 points and a team-high 4.9 assists.
The Minnesota Golden Gophers are 14-16 record overall and 7-12 in the Big Ten. They are looking to bounce back from a frustrating 77-47 loss to Indiana, but are 3-2 over their past five. Minnesota has gone 14-16 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 19 of its 30 games.
Niko Medved’s squad ranks 306th in the country in scoring by averaging 70.6 points per game. They rank 183rd in offensive rating, 160th in field goal percentage, and 159th in three-point percentage. Minnesota is allowing 68.5 points per game, which ranks 50th in the country. The Golden Gophers also rank 198th in defensive rating, 212th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 230th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Cade Tyson headlines the production for Minnesota, averaging 19.7 points, 5.4 rebounds and 2.3 assists, while shooting 42.9% from beyond the three-point arc. Jaylen Crocker-Johnson is second on the team in scoring with 13.4 points and 6.8 rebounds, but is sidelined with a foot injury. He joins Chansey Willis Jr. and Robert Vaihola, who will each miss the remainder of the season and have been sidelined since November. Langston Reynolds, Isaac Asuma and Bobby Durkin also each average in double figures.
Northwestern vs. Minnesota pick, best bet
This is not quite the headline matchup of the college basketball slate, but each of these teams will be looking to put a positive end to their regular season. In the first matchup between these two teams, Minnesota won 84-78. Northwestern led for 64% of the matchup, although neither team extended a lead beyond seven points throughout. Minnesota out-rebounded Northwestern 33-20 in the victory.
Plenty has changed on both sides since this January matchup. Most notably, the pathway to winning the rebounding battle is not as clear, with Minnesota’s top two rebounders on the season (Robert Vaihola and Jaylen Crocker-Johnson) sidelined. Neither of these teams has been strong on the board this year. Northwestern ranks 346th in rebounds per game, while Minnesota ranks 339th in rebounds per game.
Injuries have hit the Minnesota roster harder, which should be a factor tonight. Northwestern has quietly played better basketball down the stretch of the season. It covered the spread in a four-point loss to Purdue in the previous game and won three straight games before this, including upsetting Indiana as 13.5-point underdogs. The five losses before this aren’t ideal, but they are understandable given the matchups came against Nebraska, Illinois, Michigan, Iowa and Washington.
Furthermore, Northwestern takes excellent care of the basketball. It ranks second in the country in turnovers per game, which is essential when facing this Minnesota team. Northwestern only turned the ball over four times in the first matchup.
With the rebounding advantage no longer in Minnesota’s favor, I am backing Northwestern to find enough ways to produce. Martinelli poured in 26 points, so expect him to have similar success leading the offense tonight.
