SEC heavyweights are on a collision course this afternoon. #20 Arkansas (22-8, 12-5) is enjoying a terrific Year Two under head coach John Calipari. As things currently stand, the Razorbacks are tied for second in the conference standings. They’ll face a major road test on Saturday against Missouri (20-10, 10-7). The Tigers have been inconsistent recently, going 3-3 over their last six contests.
Missouri enters Saturday as 3.5-point favorites (-115) over Missouri. The total is set at 162.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for today’s game between the Razorbacks and Tigers.
Arkansas vs. Missouri prediction, preview
Throughout his decades-long career, Calipari has prioritized rostering elite point guards. Darius Acuff Jr. fits the mold of a superstar ball handler. The freshman phenom leads the entire SEC with 22.2 points and 6.4 assists per game. In addition, he’s delivered impressive 49/44/79 shooting splits. However, the 19-year-old isn’t the only name worth watching in Fayetteville. Fellow guard Meleek Thomas is second on the roster with 14.9 points per game. Down low, 6’9″ Trevon Brazile has given the Razorbacks good minutes at center (12.9 PPG, 7.1 REB).
UPDATE: Acuff Jr. (undisclosed) has been listed as OUT for Saturday’s game.
As a unit, Arkansas ranks sixth in college basketball with a 126.0 adjusted offensive efficiency on KenPom. To boot, the Hogs rank first in turnover percentage (12.3%), 16th in effective field goal percentage (56.7%), and 20th in three-point percentage (38.0%). In addition, they operate at the nation’s 19th-quickest adjusted tempo (71.3). If there’s a major weakness for this group, it’s on the glass. The Hogs have a 50.7% total rebounding percentage, tied for 137th. A season-ending torn meniscus injury for Karter Knox also hurts.
Missouri has built its roster in a very different way compared to its opponents tonight. For starters, a large majority of the team’s scoring comes from the front court. Forward Mark Mitchell has been a force, recording 17.6 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game. Fellow bigs Trent Pierce and Shawn Phillips have made things difficult for opposing centers. In fact, the Tigers are the third-tallest team on KenPom in terms of average height (79.2″). However, they are only 109th in block percentage (10.7%).
On paper, it’s fair to be a bit skeptical of Mizzou. The school ranks 50th and 82nd respectively in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. However, the Tigers have proven they can take down top-flight competition. Look no further than victories over #5 Florida, #23 Tennessee, #24 Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Texas A&M. Still, they’ve also suffered disappointing losses to Notre Dame and Ole Miss. It’s worth mentioning that the Tigers are 15-2 when playing at home in Columbia. Arkansas is just 4-5 on the road.
Arkansas vs. Missouri pick, best bet
It’d be foolish to count out the Tigers, despite their middling advanced metrics. However, opposing teams are making 36.5% of their three-pointers vs. Missouri, 28th-highest in college basketball. That’s not ideal against a sharpshooting squad such as Arkansas. When these teams last met on February 21st, the Razorbacks went 8 of 18 from deep (44.4%) en route to a 94-86 victory. Expect the more talented Hogs to step up in this one.
Best Bet: Arkansas vs. Missouri over 162.5 total points (-115)
UPDATE: With Acuff Jr. now being held out, the best value on the board is on the over. Arkansas, while hurt by the guard’s absence, should remain effective on offense. Even more important, the Razorbacks are likely to continue operating at a lightning-fast tempo. The Tigers will have an advantage when it comes to paint points and grabbing offensive rebounds. Expect both teams to put up points this afternoon.
