A Southern Conference showdown is on tap for 5:00 p.m. ET in Asheville. The Citadel (10-21, 7-11) enters tournament play as the #9 seed. Despite their mediocre record, the Bulldogs have improved compared to last season’s ten-win campaign. That progress will be put to the test on Friday vs. #8 Chattanooga (13-18, 7-11). The Mocs took home the SoCon regular season championship back in 2025.
Chattanooga enters tonight as 7.5-point favorites (-105) over The Citadel. The total is set at 147.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Friday’s game between the Bulldogs and Mocs.
The Citadel vs. Chattanooga prediction, preview
‘Ugly’ is the operative word when describing The Citadel’s preferred play style. The Bulldogs have posted a 98.8 adjusted offensive efficiency, 338th out of 365 teams on KenPom. In addition, they rank 332nd with a 64.3 adjusted tempo. Even reaching 70 points is no guarantee for this group, especially during conference play. Granted, it’s not as if this roster is completely bereft of scorers. Braxton Williams is putting up 14.4 points per game, although he’s done so on inefficient 39% shooting. Fellow forward Christian Moore has also made an impact (11.3 PPG). With that being said, those are the only two on this squad averaging double-digit points per game.
It’s not as if the Bulldogs have been world-beaters on the other end of the floor. Their defense grades out as even worse than their offense on KenPom. As a whole unit, this team has the nation’s 16th-worst net rating (-21.02). Opponents are shooting 59% against The Citadel on all two-point attempts, fifth-worst in college basketball. It’s a fairly undersized squad, as well. This crew has ten different players averaging at least 10.0 minutes per game. Just one of those names, Simeon German, is taller than 6’6″.
For the higher-seeded Mocs, tournament play offers a chance to get back on track. Keep in mind, this program won a conference-best 29 games last season. Their current 13-win campaign has been a major letdown. A -.018 luck rating on KenPom, 235th in the nation, hints at positive regression going forward. The biggest priority for Chattanooga is floor spacing. This crew is shooting 35.6% from three-point range, 87th-best in Division I. Even more important, they take nearly half (49.5%) of their field goal attempts from beyond the arc. In comparison, opponents are shooting 36.3% from long distance vs. The Citadel.
Unlike the Bulldogs, this is a fairly well-rounded Chattanooga roster. Leading the way is Jordan Frison, one of the conference’s top players. He’s recorded 16.4 points, 3.3 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game. Four other names on this roster have put up at least 8.4 points per game. A lack of size often hurts the Mocs; their average height is 75.9″, 14th-worst in college basketball. However, as previously mentioned, that’s unlikely to be an issue against The Citadel.
The Citadel vs. Chattanooga pick, best bet
On paper, Chattanooga simply does everything at a higher level than the Bulldogs. Look no further than the last meeting between these two on February 21st, a 93-72 Mocs triumph. If the Mocs simply make their shots at a reasonable rate, this one shouldn’t be much of a sweat.
