Tonight at the Meta Apex, Mario Bautista is facing Vinicius Oliveira in a top-10 Bantamweight contest. A little over three months after suffering his first loss in four years, Bautista returns looking to get back in the win column. But Bautista faces a talented rising star, Oliveira, who is riding a six-fight winning streak.
Check out my best bet for tonight’s Main Event between Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira.
Vinicius Oliveira Moneyline (+120)
From February 2022 to June 2025, Bautista won eight consecutive fights with key wins over Jose Aldo and Patchy Mix. But at UFC 321 in October 2025, Bautista’s winning streak came to an end against Umar Nurmagomedov. Now Bautista faces Oliveira, who is on the cusp of being a legit title contender. Oliveira is 4-0 in the UFC with Bernardo Sopaj, Ricky Simon, Said Nurmagomedov, and Kyler Phillips.
Bautista is the favorite in this contest at -142, with Oliveira being a +120 underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook. This fight is -175 to not go the distance and +130 to go the full five rounds. The over/under is set at 4.5 rounds with the under being -130. Bautista is +250 to win by decision, while Oliveira is +250 to win by KO/TKO/DQ.
Although Bautista lands more significant strikes per minute (5.58 vs. 5.28) while being more accurate (48% vs. 43%), Oliveira only absorbs 2.89 significant strikes per minute. Even though Oliveira hasn’t scored a knockout since March 2024, he still has a tremendous amount of power. Oliveira has won 16 of his 23 fights by knockout in his career. If Oliveira displays his elite athleticism while avoiding any significant punches from Bautista, he will be in a good position to pull off the upset. Getting Oliveira to win this bout at +120 is an excellent value play considering the upside he has.
