UPDATE: Los Angeles Lakers guard Austin Reaves has been listed as questionable with an illness, and Quentin Grimes (finger) is out for tonight’s game against the Atlanta Hawks. Luka Dončić (back) will play.
Whenever Luka Dončić faces the Atlanta Hawks, it’s always a revenge game of sorts; after all, Dončić was infamously traded by the Hawks on draft night in 2018 for Trae Young. His stats against Atlanta aren’t notably better than his stats against other teams, but his 73-point outburst at State Farm Arena in 2024 stands as a notable exception.
Tonight, Dončić, in the midst of the best scoring season of his career, will lead his Los Angeles Lakers in tonight’s 7 p.m. ET road game against the Hawks.
Los Angeles hasn’t yet released its injury report, but only Dončić (back) didn’t play last night in the Lakers’ win over the Detroit Pistons, and head coach JJ Redick indicated after the game that his absence was load management-related. For Atlanta, Keshon Gilbert (knee), Mouhamed Gueye (foot), Asa Newell (toe), and Henri Veesaar (ACL) remain out, with RayJ Dennis (G-League), Jock Landale (hip), and Jalen Wilson (G-League) all questionable.
The Hawks are 1.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-120 Moneyline), with the point total set to 237.5. Los Angeles is +101 on the Moneyline.
Below, I’ll break down this day’s first contest and offer a prediction.
Los Angeles Lakers at Atlanta Hawks preview, prediction
Dončić and Austin Reaves have both been so fantastic this season that the Lakers have hardly missed LeBron James, as they’re 9-2 so far and just beat the East’s 2025/26 top-seeded Detroit Pistons last night without Dončić. Los Angeles isn’t exactly deep — only Dončić (40.1), Reaves (25.3), Walker Kessler (14.4), and Ziaire Williams (11.1) are averaging more than 10 points per game — but given that Dončić and Reaves have combined for 65.4 points per game, it doesn’t have to be. It’s almost solely as a result of Dončić’s and Reaves’ exploits that the Lakers have the league’s best offense, although they’ve paired that with its 10th-worst defense.
Atlanta is hot, winning four straight games to climb to 7-4. Jalen Johnson has picked up right where he left off after his maiden All-Star campaign in 2025/26, averaging 19.8 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 7.6 assists per game, Dyson Daniels leads the league in steals per game, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker has taken yet another leap after winning Most Improved Player. The Hawks don’t have the explosive ceiling that Los Angeles does, as their offense is ranked just 11th, but with the 12th-ranked defense, they might have a chance of slowing down the Lakers’ offense.
Lakers at Hawks pick, best bet
This season, Atlanta has been one of the most aggressive slashing teams, creating the fourth-most restricted-area attempts per game and connecting at roughly a league-average rate, while Los Angeles, despite being the best finishing team in basketball, doesn’t get all the way to the rack very often. However, the Hawks still struggle with their rim protection, allowing the third-most attempts and the fifth-highest percentage on restricted-area looks. The Lakers have done a better job both at deterring close-range looks and stopping them from going in, although Sandro Mamukelashivili doesn’t provide much rim protection when Kessler exits the game. Overall, Atlanta has allowed exactly as many points in the paint as it’s scored, and Los Angeles has out-scored its opponents inside by 5.4 points per game.
Neither of these teams has been very good on the glass, as the Hawks rank 19th in rebounding percentage and the Lakers 21st, although I’d trust Los Angeles slightly more in the long run since it had the higher rebounding percentage in 2025/26, and two of its biggest three losses by minutes played had negative on/off splits in total rebounding percentage (Rui Hachimura and Deandre Ayton). Both of these teams have been tremendous in transition, ranking first and third in points off of turnovers per game, but Atlanta has done a moderately better job taking care of the ball. The Lakers have been fairly indisciplined in the season’s early going, but the Hawks have drawn the third-fewest fouls per game, so they might be able to get a respite tonight.
Atlanta has been the more jumper-reliant of the two teams, attempting the third-most triples per game league-wide, and it’s managed to produce the fifth-most wide-open threes per game, far more than Los Angeles. The Hawks could also be somewhat more likely to benefit from shooting luck regression than the Lakers are, given that Johnson’s accuracy (22.2%) is likely to jump at some point, as is CJ McCollum’s (33.3%). Atlanta has also been better at closing out on opposing shooters, conceding the fourth-fewest uncontested triples per game so far, although it’s gotten fortunate that opponents have connected at the third-lowest rate on such looks. I trust Los Angeles more to hit difficult looks, since Dončić leads the league in field goal percentage over expectation and Reaves ranks ninth, but the shot quality difference is pretty glaring.
If the Hawks get hot from deep, they should be able to win, and in theory, Daniels is about as good of a Dončić-stopper as there is, given that he limited him to 10 points and nine assists on three-for-nine shooting in the 70.9 partial possessions that they matched up last season. Ultimately, though, I just don’t know if any team is capable of slowing down this version of Dončić, and the Lakers are too clinical from two-point range not to take advantage of Atlanta’s horrific rim protection. The only truly anomalous strength that either team has is Los Angeles’ offensive dominance.
