It’s too early in the season to be talking about the MVP race, and a lot can and will change between now and next April, when the votes are cast. However, San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama entered the season as the award favorite and has done nothing to loosen his grasp on it. In the early going, the NBA’s most important award seems to be a two-man battle between Wembanyama and the Los Angeles Lakers’ Luka Dončić.
Wembanyama will have a chance to strengthen his case tonight, when his Spurs travel for a 9 p.m. ET contest against the Phoenix Suns.
Four of the five players who will miss tonight’s game for San Antonio — Maliq Brown (G-League), Ja’Kobi Gillespie (G-League), Tobias Harris (calf), and Jayden Quaintance (knee) — have combined for five total minutes this season, but the Spurs will also be missing a starter in Devin Vassell (adductor). Phoenix is still without center Mark Williams (shoulder), with Jordan Goodwin (calf) questionable.
San Antonio is an 8.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-372 Moneyline), with the point total set to 226.5. The Suns are +296 on the Moneyline.
Below, I’ll break down this southwestern clash and offer a prediction.
San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns preview, prediction
Since losing the first two games of the season, the Spurs have gotten hot, winning eight straight games to sit third in the Western Conference standings at 8-2. Wembanyama has played brilliantly, averaging 29.1 points, 12.0 rebounds, and a league-leading 3.9 blocks per game in just 30.3 minutes per contest, including a historic 52-point, 24-rebound, eight-block effort against the Dallas Mavericks on November 4. Additionally, the three-guard lineup featuring Dylan Harper, De’Aaron Fox, and Stephon Castle has out-scored opponents by 34.0 points per 100 possessions, though they’ve played all of their minutes together alongside Wembanyama. All in all, San Antonio ranks fifth in both offensive and defensive rating.
For its part, Phoenix is coming off of back-to-back wins, including a fairly impressive result against a West top-six side in the Houston Rockets, but it’s still climbing out of a hole after starting 1-5. Devin Booker has still been as steady as ever, averaging 25.3 points per game on moderately efficient shooting, but Jalen Green has not yet found his jumper and both Khaman Maluach and Oso Ighodaro (especially the former) have struggled to fill in for Williams. The Suns have been okay offensively, ranking 16th in offensive rating, but their defense has been the fourth-worst in basketball.
Spurs at Suns pick, best bet
These two teams could hardly be more different in their ability to get to and finish at the rim. This season, the Spurs have produced the third-most restricted-area tries, with Wembanyama individually leading the league in close-range makes per game, and Phoenix has gotten downhill at a below-average rate without spectacular finishing. On the other end of the floor, the Suns have allowed 2.7 more restricted-area attempts per game than San Antonio, although both have limited opponents to 60.3% shooting at the rim. Ighodaro technically ranks higher than Wembanyama by rim points saved per 100 possessions, but he’d been a below-average rim protector in the first two seasons of his career and has played only 130 minutes so far, so I trust the Spurs’ interior play far more in the long run.
San Antonio should extend its dominance on the boards. The Spurs rank seventh in total rebounding percentage this season, including the equivalent of the league’s second-best mark in Wembanyama’s minutes, while Phoenix has snagged boards at the league’s lowest rate. Vassell has also had a negative impact on the team’s rebounding so far, so that’s unlikely to change today with him absent. All in all, the Suns have been a bit better in offensive transition than San Antonio has because they’ve done an excellent job forcing turnovers, but the Spurs are quite careful with the ball. Phoenix has also been fairly foul-prone, and it has done an extremely poor job getting to the charity stripe.
Both of these teams rank in the league’s bottom half in three-point attempts per game, and the Suns have been slightly more accurate, so the shooting factor probably leans in their direction overall, but it’s close. For what it’s worth, the Spurs have produced 1.1 more wide-open three-pointers per game than Phoenix has overall, and with Vassell out, Julian Champagnie (a far superior three-point shooter) should step into the starting lineup, providing further spacing around Castle, Fox, Harper, and Wembanyama, who are all mediocre three-point shooters. San Antonio has also cleaned up its closeouts, allowing the sixth-fewest uncontested treys per game so far this season, while the Suns have allowed an above-average number.
Ultimately, I’m going to ride with the Spurs’ offense. San Antonio’s strongest position corresponds with Phoenix’s weakest, and I’m not sure going from Vassell to Champagnie in the starting lineup is much of a downgrade, given that lineups last season with Castle, Wembanyama, Champagnie, and Fox still out-scored opponents by 15.7 points per 100 possessions. Wembanyama was always unlikely to get into foul trouble regardless, but the only way the Spurs’ offense doesn’t put up tons of points is if he is forced to spend significant time on the bench. San Antonio has cleared 117.5 points in four of its last five games, and the Suns have allowed at least 118 in five of their eight games overall.
