The Buffalo Bills entered the season tied for the second-lowest odds to win the Super Bowl. After Week 8, the Bills remain near the top of the odds board, and for good reason. The only blemish for Buffalo was a 29-26 loss to the New England Patriots, a game that the Bills would have won if not for a few costly mistakes.
The offense has been prolific, scoring the second-most touchdowns across the league to this point. Josh Allen has completed 65.9% of his 205 pass attempts for 1,793 yards, to go along with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions. He leads the league with 8.7 yards per attempt and 13.3 yards per completion.
Wide receiver Kahlil Shakir has garnered the most targets with 38, while tight end Dalton Kincaid has hauled in 27 of 35 targets for 401 yards and two touchdowns. Keon Coleman leads the team with three receiving touchdowns while DJ Moore and Josh Palmer have two apiece.
The Bills offensive line continues to be one of the best in the sport, and James Cook has thrived out of the backfield. Cook has 707 yards on the ground and seven touchdowns on the season, while Allen has also rushed for 270 yards and nine touchdowns.
The defense is where the chinks in the armor appear for Buffalo. The unit has allowed 181 points and the 164 first downs to this point. The one positive is that Buffalo’s pressure rate is fifth-best, but only 15 sacks have been racked up this season. This is a unit that has surrendered 15 passing touchdowns, and most opposing quarterbacks are very comfortable picking apart this secondary.
The Minnesota Vikings are the mirror image of Buffalo, as the Vikings have a dominant defense with a suspect offense. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores has been a mad man, dialing up a blitz at a league-leading 69.1% of the time. For context, the New York Giants are second on just 36.6% of plays. Minnesota is tops in pressure rate and has 25 sacks on the season, while the Vikings are allowing just 154.9 yards per game — good for the lowest in football.
On offense, it hasn’t been pretty for Kevin O’Connell’s group. Minnesota has registered just 12 total touchdowns all season, including just five passing touchdowns from Kyler Murray. With Murray now set to miss Monday’s game with an injury, Carson Wentz will get the start for the second time this season. This could provide a much-needed spark for the Minnesota passing offense.
Justin Jefferson is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, but he’s only garnered 40 targets on the season, which is something that could change with Wentz back under center. Elsewhere, tight end TJ Hockenson has 31 receptions on 37 targets for 295 yards and three touchdowns.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Monday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (BUF @ MIN)
Bills at Vikings DraftKings Showdown Captain’s Picks
Justin Jefferson ($14,700 CP): In Week 1, Carson Wentz replaced Kyler Murray and understood the assignment: pepper Justin Jefferson with targets. Jefferson finished the game with eight receptions for 92 yards and two touchdowns. Now, he faces a Buffalo defense that’s been shredded by opposing passing attacks all season long. This is a dream matchup for Jefferson.
Best UTIL Plays for Bills at Vikings
Carson Wentz ($9,000): Well, if Jefferson is going to have a good game, it’s only natural to assume that Wentz will as well. The Vikings quarterback is worth a shot at this price.
TJ Hockenson ($5,400): In Week 1 with Wentz under center, Hockenson caught four of five targets for 36 yards and a touchdown. Hockenson is second on the team with 37 targets, which is only three fewer than Jefferson. The passing volume may not be robust in this one, but Hockenson should receive plenty of targets.
Josh Allen ($11,400): Allen is the alpha and omega of the Bills offense. The Wyoming product has scored at least 18 FPTS in every contest with three games over 30 points and a season high of 40.8 FPTS. I’m not expecting an all-time game against a tough Vikings defense, but it’s always within the range of outcomes.
Bills at Vikings DFS Fades
Dalton Kincaid ($7,400): Kincaid is second on the Bills with 35 targets, but he has three single-digit FPTS games this season. Now, he faces a Vikings defense that’s allowed the fewest FPTS to tight ends this season.
Bills at Vikings Showdown Game Script
I have the utmost respect for Brian Flores and the Vikings defense, and the home crowd will likely be raucous in primetime. Wentz is a wily veteran that should keep the chains moving, which isn’t difficult to do against the Bills defense. Give me the home underdog in this one.
Final Score: Vikings 23, Bills 20
