Dallas is starting to look pretty comfortable. The Mavericks enter Monday’s meeting with Indiana at 6-4 after consecutive wins, while the 3-7 Pacers are trying to stay above water without star floor general Tyrese Haliburton. Tipoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET at the American Airlines Center, with Dallas favored by 3.5 points (-118) on DraftKings Sportsbook and the total at 226.5.
Haliburton remains out with a hamstring strain, while T.J. McConnell is questionable with his own hamstring issue. Ben Sheppard and Johnny Furphy are also out. Irving is not listed on the latest report, so he’ll appear on both halves of a back-to-back set for the first time this season.
Let’s break down tonight’s matchup.
Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks preview, prediction
Indiana probably has enough talent to compete, but its offense hasn’t consistently produced enough to overcome its injuries. Pascal Siakam is averaging 21.4 PPG and remains the most established scoring option, while Andrew Nembhard has more responsibility creating opportunities without Haliburton. He’s been in this spot before last season, and he responded with a career-high 16.9 PPG and 7.7 APG. He’s on track to repeat that effort again.
The Pacers lost 114-102 to Denver in Mexico City on Saturday, making this the final stop before heading home. That’s a difficult setting for a team still trying to establish some continuity. Indiana can get useful possessions from Siakam attacking mismatches and Ivica Zubac working inside, but replacing Haliburton’s top tier combination of passing, shooting, and decision-making is a tall task.
Dallas, on the other hand, is loving what they’ve been seeing from Cooper Flagg. Flagg is putting up 24 PPG, 6.6 RPG, and 7 APG through nine games, with Irving contributing 21.4 PPG and 4.4 APG across eight games. Flagg’s ascendance as a playmaker is a welcome surprise for the Mavs, and it appears that Jason Kidd’s decision to run Flagg at the 1 for a brief period of time during his rookie season may have paid off. Flagg will attack the Pacers on all three levels tonight, and if he gets blitzed, he’ll have a secondary creator in Irving to relieve pressure off him.
Pacers at Mavericks pick, best bet
I like Dallas’ luxury with that secondary creator. Irving will be able to attack defensive rotations in motion tonight. Indiana cannot afford to double Flagg tonight, but they also don’t love giving him 1 on 1 matchups against any of the defenders on their roster.
The offensive glass provides another advantage. Dallas ranks seventh in offensive rebounding percentage at 30.1%, while Indiana is last at 21.0%. That’s a stark difference, even if this doesn’t guarantee that Dallas will dominate every rebound; Indiana’s defensive rebounding percentage ranks a more respectable 16th.
Indiana’s lack of second chances also makes its shooting more consequential. The Pacers are making just 32.6% of their threes, ranking 25th, and Dallas allows the seventh-fewest fastbreak points. If the Mavericks hustle defensively and make Indiana execute against a set defense, the Pacers could struggle to keep up with the massive talent disparity.
Indiana has the rest advantage, at least. Siakam’s interior scoring gives the Pacers a legitimate way to punish sluggish defensive possessions, should we see any. Dallas also can’t assume opponents will continue shooting a league-low 30.6% from three against it. Some regression is reasonable, even if the defense is playing well overall and rebounding hard.
Still, we’re expecting Dallas to win by four. With Irving available, I trust the Mavericks’ creation more than Indiana’s ability to keep answering without their best player.
