Athletic Club Bilbao was thrust into the global football spotlight this summer, as the Basque giants were tied once again to transfer rumors surrounding their best player, Nico Williams. Ultimately, Williams decided not to sign with Barcelona as expected and instead inked an eight-year contract extension to stay at Athletic Club until 2035.
Now, one season after they made a run to the Europa League semifinals and finished fourth in La Liga, Los Leones enter Wednesday’s Champions League Matchweek 6 contest against title-holders Paris Saint-Germain outside the competition’s top 24. The pivotal match will kick off at 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local) at the San Mamés in Bilbao.
PSG is a -150 favorite to win and +300 to draw at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Athletic Club is +390 on the Moneyline.
Athletic Bilbao vs. Paris Saint-Germain prediction, pick
It could be argued that both teams have under-performed relative to expectations, but they have not been particularly comparable to each other. Athletic Club’s struggles have resulted in a bottom-12 position in the Champions League and a mid-table position in La Liga, where it is as many points behind fourth-place Atlético Madrid as it is ahead of the relegation zone at nearly the midway point of the season. Paris Saint-Germain has only been “disappointing” in that it is second in Ligue 1 — one point behind a surprising RC Lens — and second in the UCL League Phase as the defending champion of both competitions. PSG’s tournament won’t really start until the Round of 16, while the Basque side is approaching do-or-die territory: entering play Wednesday, Athletic Club will need to jump four teams just to reach the top 24, especially with Benfica (one behind Los Leones on three points) favored to beat Napoli this afternoon.
Bilbao’s issues start with Williams, who just hasn’t been as impactful so far as he was in 2024-25. The 23-year-old still leads the team in goals and assists across all competitions, but five goal contributions in 10 starts isn’t exactly world-beating, especially since neither he nor his older brother Iñaki has had a goal contribution in the Champions League. In fact, Los Leones have scored just four goals in five Champions League matches, and the only team with as few goals currently in the top 24 is Paphos, which was blessed with a matchup against Kairat Almaty and is a heavy underdog against Juventus. They also rank eighth-to-last in goals in La Liga. Bilbao’s defense is better; it is near the middle of the pack defensively both in the UCL and La Liga, and Unai Símon is still Spain’s top-choice goalie despite the fact that Arsenal’s David Raya also represents La Roja. Símon could give Athletic Club enough of a chance to hang with Paris, but the attack needs to smash home at least two to have a chance.
I can’t see Les Parisiens’ defense conceding that many goals. They’ve allowed multiple goals only seven times and more than two goals only thrice, giving up a league-low 12 goals in 15 Ligue 1 matches. Even in the absence of Achraf Hakimi, who suffered a high-ankle sprain in his team’s League Phase defeat to Bayern Münich, PSG’s back line is chock-full of talent, headlined by arguably the world’s best center-back partnership in club captain Marquinhos and Willian Pacho. Marquinhos and Pacho will be tasked with protecting backup shot-stopper Matvei Safonov tonight with Lucas Chevalier out with an injury, but given that Paris has allowed the fourth-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes, the Russian shouldn’t have too much to do. Plus, there might be no team with a deeper front line, as Paris has scored the second-most goals in Ligue 1 and the most in the Champions League even with Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembélé playing just 490 minutes across all competitions. Les Parisiens lead the Champions League in shots per 90 minutes and second in goals minus expected goals, a combination of volume and efficiency that will challenge a Bilbao team that has given up a high average shot quality.
Even at the San Mamés, I don’t see a world in which this match is competitive. Williams has been dealing with a nagging groin injury all season that has clearly hampered his performance, and even without the world’s best right-back in Hakimi, PSG’s defense is far too strong. The last time the French champions lost with Doué came all the way back on July 13, when it lost 3-0 to Chelsea in the Club World Cup final. In Paris’ lone Champions League defeat, it generated more expected goals’ worth of chances against a much better team than Los Leones despite being without Dembélé for 65 minutes and Hakimi for 45. Paris has won more than thrice as many games by multiple goals as it has lost, and Athletic Club has nearly as many multi-goal defeats (six) as it does wins (eight).
