Last night, the Trail Blazers and Thunder battled in Portland, a matchup that wasn’t even close by the time the dust settled. The Blazers, despite their relative youth, won handily in a 123-103 finish to start this back-to-back. Less than 24 hours removed from that outing, these teams face off again tonight in a rematch.
Read on for a full preview, prediction and pick for Wednesday’s Thunder vs. Trail Blazers matchup, courtesy of odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers prediction, preview
The Thunder are now 8-3 on the year after yesterday’s loss, which snapped a four-game winning streak. That they remain 11th in NETRTG at +5.5 while weathering injuries to Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Cason Wallace is quite the feat, but they’re leaning on the defense to get the job done most nights. That unit allows 105.9 PPG, fourth fewest, with the No. 5 DEFRTG in the league. Oklahoma City still ranks fifth in rebounds per game (47.1) and is sixth in blocks (5.7), also holding opponents to the lowest FG% (41.0%) while allowing a 35.0 3P%. The offense largely suffers when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t on fire, though. The team averages 111.4 PPG and is just 18th in OFFRTG, and efficiency isn’t a strong suit with a 45.5% FG% and a 35.9% 3P%. Gilgeous-Alexander averages 29.5 PPG and is taking over 23 shots a game, with Ajay Mitchell playing costar with posting 18.5 PPG of his own – however, the latter won’t play tonight. Jared McCain is the only other scorer in double digits with 12.9 PPG, so there’s a notable lack of offensive options in his teammates’ absences. Isaiah Hartenstein’s 10.0 rebounds do lead the team, with rookies Aday Mara and Bennett Stirtz playing key roles, too.
As mentioned above, Holmgren, Wallace and Jalen Williams are all sidelined for the foreseeable future, but this rotation is even more shorthanded here. Mitchell is out tonight, as is Jaylin Williams.
The Trail Blazers snapped back-to-back losses with the big win last night, advancing to 7-3 on the year. The offense has been excellent this season and rolled against a top defense, bumping their scoring average to 119.7 PPG – third most in the league – with the fourth-best OFFRTG. Their efficiency stands out with a 47.0% FG% that ranks ninth and the 12th-best 3P% at 35.9%, and they’re still fourth in attempts per game from beyond the arc. Deni Avdija’s 22.5 points and 6.5 assists per game are team highs, also bringing in 6.4 rebounds. Veteran point guard Damian Lillard averages 20.0 PPG in his return from a torn Achilles, working as a clear second option in the absence of Ja Morant, who remains out tonight. Donovan Clingan averages an 11.4-point, 10.3-rebound double-double, and Toumani Camara pitches in 13.0 PPG with elite defense. While there are standout defenders, Portland allows 112.7 PPG and ranks 13th in DEFRTG. Overall, though, the club’s NETRTG of +7.0 ranks 10th.
On the injury report for Portland, the aforementioned Morant is out tonight, with Shaedon Sharpe and Vik Krejci both out as well.
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Trail Blazers as a 2.5-point favorite at home tonight with -147 odds on the Moneyline. The Thunder are a +124 underdog to win outright on the road with the total set at 224.5 combined points.
The result last night spoke for itself. The game was tied 59-59 heading into halftime, with Portland playing up to the caliber of its opponent. And while the Portland defense wasn’t spectacular, the unit came online in the second half by allowing just 44 points over the third and fourth quarters, while the offense popped with a 38-point third that wound up securing the win. Gilgeous-Alexander finished with 26 points, but for his team to win these days, he needs to do more on a nightly basis. The Trail Blazers were led by 49 combined points from Lillard and Avdija, though Sidy Cissoko had a big night with 17 points on albeit inefficient shooting splits.
Still, the Thunder now are missing their second-leading scorer in Mitchell and another rotation piece in Jaylin Williams. The outlook appears more dire tonight, so on leg two of a back-to-back, it’s tough to trust the visitors to bounce back in this spot. For that reason, I’m rolling with the Trail Blazers to cover the spread again here at home since they have far more reliable contributors healthy in the rotation.
