Buffalo receiver Chance Morrow torched Miami (Ohio) for 199 yards and two touchdowns on 12 catches, giving quarterback Jason Wright the help he needed to escape with a 34–31 overtime win. Wright threw for 358 yards, although he completed just 22 of 46 attempts and tossed two interceptions. Buffalo had to chase that game for long stretches. Morrow was magnificent; Wright still left the defense plenty of opportunities to end possessions. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Ball State Cardinals and the Buffalo Bulls.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Ball State vs. Buffalo prediction, preview
Ball State has recently made opposing runners work much harder. After Toledo shredded the Cardinals for 352 rushing yards, they held Bowling Green to 98 on 35 carries and Sacramento State to 54 on 27. UMass followed with 153 on 39. Buffalo’s earlier rushing success needs to be weighed against a front that has resisted the last three rushing attacks it faced.
Buffalo running back Messiah Burch also has company again. He carried 14 times for 56 yards at Miami, while fellow back Terrance Shelton Jr. added 41 on 12 attempts. Shelton’s return changes how much work belongs to Burch. The Bulls’ recent interior has featured center Thomas Barr between guards Val Kondratenko and Nathan Natoli, while the current two-deep still lists alternatives at right tackle. Buffalo has to earn its rushing advantage with this group.
Wright should have chances to hurt Ball State even if Burch labors. The Cardinals have allowed opponents to complete 66.7% of their passes and throw 20 touchdowns this season. Morrow just delivered his spectacular receiving performance while neither Buffalo back reached 60 rushing yards. I’m giving that passing connection greater weight here than a forecast built around another Burch eruption.
Buffalo vs. Ball State pick, best bet
The Cardinals can run back at Buffalo. Running back Jalen Bonds gashed UMass for 132 yards and two touchdowns on 17 carries, while quarterback Keldric Luster threw for 182 yards and directed the late 75-yard tying drive. Ball State scored 24 points in regulation and six in overtime. Buffalo just allowed Miami 196 net rushing yards, so Bonds has a credible way to prolong possessions and spare Luster some obvious passing downs.
Buffalo has become much more disruptive when opponents do have to throw, recording 10 sacks in three games. Miami scored 24 offensive points in regulation; its other touchdown came on a blocked-punt return. Bonds should make the Bulls work, but their improving pass rush can end enough possessions for Wright and Morrow to decide a close game. With the total up from 48.5 to 51.5, I prefer Buffalo laying the short number.
Best bet: Buffalo -1.5 (-102)
Projected score: Buffalo 28, Ball State 25.
Best Bet: Buffalo -1.5 (+100) at Ball State
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