There is a full slate of 12 NBA games tipping off on Friday night. In one of the headline matchups, the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics will square off. These are two of the premier franchises in the sport, although neither is expected to arrive with its whole squad, with each team playing in the second half of a back-to-back.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Celtics enter as 6.5-point favorites and hold -250 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Lakers hold +205 odds of winning outright with the game total set at 225.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Friday night matchup.
Lakers at Celtics Preview
The Los Angeles Lakers enter with a 16-5 record on the season, which puts them in second place in the Western Conference. They took down the Toronto Raptors 123-120 last night, but LeBron James snapped a nearly two-decade streak of scoring 10+ points in every game. This streak will officially end at 1,297 consecutive games. James will be looking to begin building up the streak, although he has not played in a back-to-back since returning from injury this year, so his status is uncertain for tonight, with the expectation seeming to be he will miss. Luka Doncic is also expected to continue missing for personal reasons, and Marcus Smart has missed the past four games due to a back injury.
The Lakers are averaging 119.2 points per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. They rank second in the league in field goal percentage, 17th in three-point percentage, 24th in three-point attempts per game, 27th in rebounds per game, and sixth in offensive rating. Defensively, opponents are scoring 116.0 points per game against Los Angeles, which ranks 15th. They are 18th in defensive rating, 25th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 23rd in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Austin Reaves deserves a ton of credit for scaling up his production amid the inconsistent availability of Doncic and James. Reaves is fresh off a 44-point and 10-assist performance last night, and is posting averages of 28.9 points, 6.8 assists, and 5.7 rebounds on the season. Deandre Ayton has pulled his weight at the big man spot, adding 15.8 points and 8.6 rebounds per game, while Rui Hachimura has pitched in 13.9 points per game and will be riding the momentum of his game-winning three-pointer last night. The Lakers are 14-7 against the spread on the season, and the over has cashed in 15 of their 21 games.
The Boston Celtics hold a 13-9 record on the season, which slots them at fifth place in the Eastern Conference. They enter on a three-game winning streak and have produced a victory in eight of their last 10. Boston is 12-10 against the spread this season, and the game total has gone under in 12 of their matchups.
Jayson Tatum remains sidelined with an Achilles tear, which he suffered in last year’s playoffs. The outlook for his return occurring at any point this season is still up in the air. Jaylen Brown joined him on the sideline during yesterday’s victory due to an illness. His status will be one to monitor throughout the day, with his outlook questionable, and Brown is off to an impressive start to the season. Across the 21 games he has played, Brown is averaging 29.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game. Payton Pritchard has also scaled up his offensive role, posting 17.3 points, 4.9 assists, and 4.4 rebounds per game. Derrick White adds 17.0 points and 5.3 assists, while Anfernee Simons adds 13.7 points off the bench, and Neemias Queta has been a pleasant surprise with 10.1 points and 8.2 rebounds per contest.
As a team, the Celtics rank 19th in the league in scoring at 116.7 points per contest. They rank 17th in field goal percentage, 16th in three-point percentage, 17th in rebounds per contest, and fourth in offensive rating. Boston is holding opponents to 110.7 points per game, which is the third-best rate in the league. Teams are shooting the third-worst field goal percentage, but rank 21st in three-point percentage allowed. Boston ranks 16th in defensive rating and dead last in pace.
Lakers at Celtics Prediction, Best Bet
Keep your eyes on the injury report leading up to the matchup, but getting 6.5-points in favor of the Lakers is worth backing. Even if they are without their top two scorers, Boston has failed to put opponents away consistently this season. Los Angeles is covering the spread at among the best rates in the league, and Austin Reaves has looked the part of a player capable of being the primary offensive engine all season.
But rather than taking a side, I am backing the under of 225.5 points in this matchup. On the second night of a back-to-back with both teams missing stars, this game should not be expected to be played with much tempo. This is especially the case with the teams ranking 21st and 20th in pace on the season overall. The Lakers hold more offensive firepower overall, but also rank dead last in the league in field goal attempts per game. Boston is more dependent on their defensive identity, with Joe Mazzulla unwilling to extend minutes to players like Anfernee Simons if they do not do the work on the defensive side of the ball. They have allowed the fewest overall field goal attempts this season to opponents.
The trends also back up this outlook. Eight of the Lakers’ last nine road games against opponents who are on the second night of a back-to-back have resulted in the game total going under. The same has occurred in five of the last six Celtics’ games occurring in the second half of a back-to-back.
My lean would have been toward the under in general for this matchup. But this is especially the case given the lack of rest and the stars that are set to miss. Expect points to be difficult to come by for both teams, and for the game total to fall short of 225.5 in the first matchup between these two teams this season.
