Small market teams this. Small market teams that. Blah, blah, blah. The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers are both fantastic basketball teams. While the Thunder are heavy favorites to win the series, that shouldn’t disparage the Pacers. It’s just that the Thunder are really, really good.
Both teams like to play fast. OKC was fifth in pace during the regular season while Indiana was seventh. In the playoffs, the teams were second and third respectively. Both teams are deep. Both teams took care of the basketball, ranking first and third in turnovers during the regular season. In the playoffs? First and third. Both teams were top 10 in offensive rating during the regular season. OKC was sixth in true shooting percentage while Indiana was seventh.
The main differentiator? OKC was first in defensive rating by a wide margin. The scheme, the length, the ball pressure and IQ (individually and collectively) swarmed opposing offenses like killer bees. Wu Tang would be proud.
In the Eastern Conference Finals, Indiana showed off their ball pressure and scheme versatility. They will be severely challenged by an OKC team that has multiple ball handlers and ways to alleviate pressure.
These teams met twice during the regular season with OKC winning both contests – 120-114 and 132-111. Chet Holmgren did not play in either game while Aaron Nesmith missed the first meeting.
DraftKings Sportsbook has OKC as 9.5-point favorites over IND at home with the total at 231.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $1.25M Finals Tip-Off Special [$250K to 1st, 3PT Throne Eligible] (IND at OKC)
Captain’s Picks
Lugentz Dort ($7,200 CP): Do I think Dort is going to be the highest scorer on the slate? Nope, but I think there’s a chance at a ceiling game for him and his price allows me to fit in more players I’d like into the UTIL slots. Dort is a low-usage player who is out there for his defense. He should be instrumental in trying to neutralize the head of the Pacers’ offense, Tyrese Haliburton, so there’s a good chance he plays over 30 minutes, barring foul trouble. This should be an up-and-down affair, which should offer plenty of opportunities to rack up fantasy goodies. Offensively is where all of this depends on. The pace could provide more shot attempts and the Pacers will likely be focused on Shai-Gilgeous Alexander and Jalen Williams, so more clean looks for Dort. He shot much better at home than on the road this season – 45% vs. 41%. In the two meetings with Indiana, Dort put up 23.25 and 36.75 FPTS. On the season, he exceeded 30 FPTS 14 times with two of those over 40 FPTS.
UTIL Plays
Andrew Nembhard ($7,400): Nembhard had a rough series against New York, but he did put up 44.25 FPTS in the series clincher. In the other series, he was in the 30 FPTS range. I think Nembhard is one of the few Pacers that doesn’t struggle in Game 1. In the two regular season meetings against OKC, Nembhard produced 32.75 and 46.25 FPTS.
Jalen Williams ($9,800): Williams only played in the first regular season meeting against Indiana and was pedestrian with 32.5 FPTS. For much of this playoff run, Williams has been in the high-30s to low-40s for FPTS. He had two games with over 50 FPTS in the Minnesota series. I think Williams’ ability to handle the ball and punish both smaller and bigger defenders off the dribble will be huge in this one.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($12,200): SGA is the metronome for fantasy. Click. Point. Click. Point. Click. Dime. Click. Point. faster ClickPoint. ClickPoint. ClickDime. ClickPoint. FASTER ClickPointClickPointClickDimeClickPoint. He produces fantasy goodies at a rhythmic pace, whether it be fast or slow. During these playoffs, he’s failed to hit 50 FPTS five times. Two of those were due to a blowout and the other three were in the high 40s.
Fades
Tyrese Haliburton ($11,000): There’s a reason why the discourse regarding Haliburton encompasses the entire spectrum. One night, he’s Michaelangelo painting the Sistine Chapel a la the 32-point triple-double with no turnovers in Game 4 against the Knicks, good for 84.5 FPTS. On another night, he could be confused with Ronnie 2K. 12 FPTS in 30 minutes against Cleveland in Game 2. I think Haliburton struggles in this one, as the Thunder have the defenders to cause him serious trouble. In the two regular season meetings against OKC, Haliburton put up 33.5 and 18 FPTS.
THE OUTCOME
I think the Thunder overwhelm the Pacers in Game 1, at both ends of the court. The defense is the main variable, as I foresee the Thunder flying around the court like a pack of berserkers, wreaking havoc in the passing lanes while making the Pacers believe there are five Gandalfs, all saying, “You shall not pass” when they try and turn any corner to drive to the paint.
Final Score: Pacers 106, Thunder 128
