There are nine MLB games on the main slate for Saturday, with the first starting at 4:05 p.m. EST. Here are three value picks for the slate. This article is written before the actual lineups come out, so keep track of updates throughout the day.
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SP Dean Kremer, Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox, $6,300
There are reasons why Kremer is so cheap. The strikeout rate is a paltry 16.6% while the K-BB% is a miniscule 10.6%. The swinging strike rate is only 8.5% and the ERA is 5.02. He’s allowed at least four earned runs in six starts, with two of those coming in the last three games.
Now for the good. Ok, everything is relative, but the 4.6 FIP shows that he’s been a tad unfortunate and the hard hit rate is only 37.3%. He’s coming off a game in Boston in which he did not allow an earned run in 5.1 innings. Five starts ago, he blanked the Royals over seven innings. He also has three other games with two or fewer earned runs.
Now for the great! Sure, it’s not Tony the Tiger “Greeeeeeaaaaattttttt!!!” but Kremer couldn’t ask for a better matchup on Saturday. Chicago is ninth in strikeouts against right-handed pitching, 29th in ISO and 30th in wOBA.
Kremer has put up double-digit FPTS in five starts, with two over 20 FPTS.
OF Cam Smith, Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays, $2,900
The Chicago Cubs selected Smith with the 14th overall pick in the 2024 MLB draft. He was then traded to the Houston Astros for Kyle Tucker. He racked up 268 plate appearances in the minors then made the Opening Day roster for the Astros after a torrid Spring Training.
Smith predictably struggled early on, but he’s been hot in May. In 20 games, consisting of 78 plate appearances, Smith slashed .324/.385/.423. He racked up a hit in all but four games and is currently riding a seven-game hitting streak. The average exit velocity has been a respectable 89.4 mph.
Not all is sunshine and unicorns, though. The slash is fueled by a .460 BABIP and the ISO has been only .099. That said, he’s produced double-digit FPTS six times in May.
Smith will face Zack Littell, who is only posting a 16.2% strikeout rate. While he’s only walked 10 batters in 65.2 innings, he’s allowed 14 home runs. The 3.97 ERA is not supported by the 5.12 FIP.
2B/3B Brett Baty, New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies, $3,100
Baty is a platoon bat, but the left-hand hitting Baty faces a righty in Antonio Senzatela on Saturday. He usually bats sixth in the order and should fill that space once again. In 119 plate apperances this season, Baty has a .216 ISO and clubbed six home runs. He’s also stolen two bases.
Senzatela has an 11.2% strikeout rate and 5.4% K-BB%. Pitching in Coors Field skews many of the numbers, but when looking at his splits this season, he’s been bad on the road as well. The slash is .410/.457/.590 with a 5.32 EA in 23.2 innings. He’s allowed four of the nine home runs served up on the road.
