Okay now—I’m all in on this. The Battle for Los Angeles. The stakes here are tangible. A city. The whole damned greater metropolitan area. The zip code. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Friday baseball game between the Padres and the Mariners.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Dodgers vs. Angels prediction, preview
The stage is set for what the MLB wants us to believe will be an electrifying showdown. And yet, the Dodgers come in as overwhelming favorites, priced at -304 on the moneyline, with a 75.2% implied win probability. Their 5.8 runs per game ranks first in MLB, and with a potent offense led by Shohei Ohtani (15 HRs, 22nd in RBI) and Freddie Freeman (.370, 34 RBI), they’re poised to put up another big performance. The Angels, underdogs at +244, are more bad than mediocre at 17-25 on the season, with anemic offensive production and a pitching staff that has the third-highest ERA in baseball (5.09).
Jack Kochanowicz (2-5, 5.23 ERA) has been a particularly unwelcome contributor to that total, especially on the road, where he has a bloated 6.33 ERA. Against a Dodgers lineup ranked first in OPS (.841), this could be a blow-up spot for him.
On the bump tonight for the home team is Dustin May (1-3, 4.08 ERA), who has been much more effective at in LA, with a 2.20 ERA in three starts. May’s 2.88 K/BB ratio and solid command should give the Dodgers a distinct edge over the utterly-hopeless Angels offense, which ranks 24th in runs per game (3.8) and 29th in team batting average (.214). They don’t even have Mike Trout to make them look good.
May has been particularly strong in his last two home starts, and with the Angels’ issues against right-handed pitching, he’ll be expected to shine. The Angels have scored four-or-fewer runs in seven of their last 10 games, and their inconsistency at the plate could become their undoing in this matchup.
Angels vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
The Angels’ bullpen doesn’t inspire confidence either, with a 1.49 WHIP and 5.09 ERA, ranking among the worst in baseball. They’ve struggled in high-leverage situations, allowing 41.9% of inherited runners to score, making it likely that if Kochanowicz falters early, the game could get out of hand quickly.
On the offensive side, while Taylor Ward (10 HRs, 22 RBI) and Zach Neto (six HRs) bring some extra-base power to the table, and Logan O’Hoppe’s .773 OPS is a lot of the reason the Halos have even 17 wins. On the whole, though, the Angels are severely limited by a league-worst OBP of .274 and lackluster plate discipline, as mentioned above. That same inability to generate consistent runs will make it even harder against a Dodgers team that ranks second in slugging (.471) and first in batting average (.272). If you don’t believe the Dodgers can produce at that kind of level, just ask Shohei Ohtani’s bobbleheads.
The Dodgers have averaged over five runs per game and have gone over the total in 25 of 44 games this season. Expect them to overpower the Angels, especially in the later innings, where they’ve been especially lethal at home.
Best bet: Dodgers -1.5 (-155) vs. Angels
They’ll light up the scoreboard even with no bobblehead night—tail it with me in the DKN betting group here!
