The Ottawa Senators visit the Buffalo Sabres on Wednesday night, with puck drop set for 7:30 p.m. ET at KeyBank Center. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Buffalo is a -130 favorite on the Moneyline, while the total is set at O/U 6.5 goals.
Below, I’ll break down the matchup and provide my top Sabres vs. Senators prediction and best bet.
Sabres vs. Senators Odds
| Market | Ottawa Senators | Buffalo Sabres |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +110 | -130 |
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-218) | -1.5 (+180) |
| Total | Over 6.5 (-122) | Under 6.5 (+102) |
Sabres vs. Senators Betting Preview
Buffalo Sabres Outlook
Buffalo enters Wednesday night riding a three-game winning streak and returns home after going 3-0-1 on its four-game road trip. The Sabres have been far better away from KeyBank Center this season, going 4-1-3 on the road compared to 3-3-0 at home, where they’ve scored just 14 goals across six outings. They’ve also been involved in some close games, with five of their 14 games going past regulation.
Tage Thompson leads the Sabres with 10 goals and 17 points, Jack Quinn is second with eight goals, and Zach Benson’s 11 assists lead the team. Colten Ellis is likely to start after a strong yet still inconsistent stretch, posting a 23-save shutout in San Jose on Oct. 27 before allowing six goals on 35 shots in a 7-6 win in Anaheim last Thursday. He sports a 3-1-0 record with an .880 SV% and 3.11 GAA, and his +1.2 GSAx ranks 25th among 74 goaltenders, while his +0.43% SV% above expected ranks 22nd.
Ottawa Senators Outlook
Ottawa has gone just 2-3-1 since Linus Ullmark landed on injured reserve with a lower-body injury on Oct. 22, and it has allowed 27 goals across those six games. Ullmark was 7-1-0 with a .945 SV% before going down, so the drop-off has been quite massive. Samuel Ersson is confirmed to start after stopping 22 of 23 shots in a 5-1 win in San Jose on Saturday, but he still sports a 1-3-1 record on the season with an .866 SV% and 3.78 GAA. His -3.2 GSAx and -1.17% SV% above expected rank 60th and 55th, respectively.
Ottawa ranks fifth in high-danger shots (45), and Tim Stützle has led the way with 21 points, including a team-high 12 assists, while sharing the team lead with Drake Batherson at nine goals apiece. The power play has been a different story for the club, converting just 12.5% of the time, which ranks 31st in the NHL. Ottawa is 4-4-1 on the road this season and went 1-2-1 on its recent four-game West Coast trip.
Sabres vs. Senators Prediction and Best Bet
The Senators have allowed 4.5 goals per game since losing Ullmark, and eight of the Sabres’ 14 games have reached seven goals. Buffalo’s goal-scoring struggles at home are my main concern, but it has scored 12 goals during its three-game winning streak, so I’ll back the Over against Ersson.
Best Bet: Over 6.5 Goals (-122)
Advanced stats courtesy of MoneyPuck.
