UMass quarterback William “Pop” Watson III came back from an ankle injury at UConn and spent most of the night chasing the Huskies in a 35–16 loss. Ball State comes to Amherst having cleared 400 yards in back-to-back games, with a quarterback who can make UMass chase him all the way to the sideline. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the UMass Minutemen and the Ball State Cardinals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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UMass vs. Ball State prediction, preview
Ball State quarterback Keldric Luster ran for 125 yards at Bowling Green, then threw for 234 against Sacramento State. He hit the Hornets for touchdowns from 65 and 55 yards out and ran six yards for another himself. He also threw two interceptions, one after a chop block and a sack stranded him on third-and-29. Five Minutemen sacked UConn quarterback Kalieb Osborne, and edge defender William DePaepe ended a drive on third down. As those rushers close on Luster, somebody has to mind the middle. Give him a crease and he can be through it while they’re still turning around.
Ball State ought to send running back TJ Horton through the middle early, too. UConn ripped through there for a 70-yard touchdown just before halftime. Horton has already broken a 66-yarder against Toledo and has averaged a sturdy 5.3 yards per carry in MAC play. He scored twice against Sacramento State while fellow back Jalen Bonds ran for 77 yards. Give Luster a few second-and-fives and he can throw before UMass turns their rush loose.
Watson could use that kind of help from UMass running back Elijah Faulkner. Watson gained 11 yards on seven official carries in his return. Faulkner took 23 for 84 at Buffalo while he was out, and now he gets a Ball State front that’s allowed 183.1 rushing yards per game. If Faulkner gets the Minutemen moving, Watson can stretch those drives through receiver Joseph Griffin Jr., who caught four passes for 77 yards at UConn.
Ball State vs. UMass pick, best bet
Watson can get UMass down the field from ordinary starting position. On his opening series at UConn, he hit a 23-yard throw over the middle and converted a third down with a 12-yard completion. The Minutemen went 69 yards in 13 plays and settled for a short field goal. They’ve converted only 18 of 51 third downs in league play, so Watson needs to cash in when they get that close. He finished a separate 71-yard drive with a short touchdown pass to running back Curtis Kimmons IV. Ball State has given up eight touchdowns on 12 MAC red-zone visits, five through the air.
Luster can give the Minutemen fits well into the second half, particularly if Horton runs well enough to slow down DePaepe. I’ll lay the 3.5 with Watson at home. Faulkner has a matchup he can run through, and I expect Watson to turn a couple of those drives into touchdowns from close range.
Best bet: UMass -3.5 (-105).
Projected score: UMass 27, Ball State 21.
Best Bet: UMass -3.5 (-105) vs. Ball State
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