The Philadelphia Phillies and Pittsburgh Pirates meet Friday night at Citizens Bank Park to kick off Pennsylvania’s rivalry weekend in a highly anticipated series opener. With the Phillies sitting comfortably at 25-18 and the Pirates struggling at 15-29, the Phillies are the clear favorites here. But it’s Rivalry Weekend! Underdogs are magic! Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Friday baseball game between the Phillies and Pirates.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Phillies vs. Pirates prediction, preview
Ranger Suarez takes the mound for the Phillies, and while his 5.91 ERA stands out as an outlier, his recent performance—a dominant seven shutout innings against Cleveland—is representative of his ceiling. Suarez is still regaining his form following an offseason back injury. Though he’s been effective against Pittsburgh in past encounters, the limited sample size this season doesn’t inspire unshakable confidence. His 2.9 BB/9 is respectable, but his elevated ERA suggests he is still prone to lapses.
Enter Andrew Heaney for the Pirates, who’s been nothing short of pleasantly steady-as-she-goes. With a 3.15 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and 7.1 K/9, Heaney’s profile this season presents a compelling counterpoint to Suarez’s volatility. Despite Pittsburgh’s offensive struggles, Heaney’s command has allowed him to outperform expectations. His strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.5 is notable, especially against a lineup like the Phillies’, which has been susceptible to left-handed pitching—ranking 18th in wRC+ against southpaws (92). Heaney has limited hard contact, exemplified by his 0.98 HR/9 rate, well below the league average of 1.08.
On the offensive side, Pittsburgh’s lineup has been underwhelming, ranking 30th in runs scored per game (3.1), but the Pirates’ offensive deficiencies are overstated. Oneil Cruz is day-to-day, but Bryan Reynolds continues hit with great force of purpose, with a .368 wOBA and a 127 wRC+ this season. Ke’Bryan Hayes, batting .260 with a 99 wRC+, is another surprising player who provides surprising depth to a lineup capable of exploiting Suarez’s inconsistency. All to say, the Pirates’ offense, despite the low aggregate run totals, has shown signs of life. They’ve posted an 88 wRC+ over their last 30 days, not elite but serviceable enough to take advantage of a pitcher like Suarez, whose .357 wOBA against left-handed batters could give Pittsburgh’s lefty-heavy lineup a slight edge.
What truly bolsters Pittsburgh’s chances, however, is their bullpen. Ranked 11th in K/9 (9.35) and 13th in ERA (3.83), the Pirates’ relief corps has been quietly impressive. The bullpen’s 3.93 FIP suggests their performance is sustainable, and they’ve excelled in high-leverage spots. In contrast, Philadelphia’s bullpen has had its issues, ranking 22nd in ERA (4.25) and 20th in FIP (4.19). The Phillies’ bullpen has allowed a troubling 4.3 BB/9, which places them in the bottom third of MLB. When games get tight late, Pittsburgh’s bullpen has the upper hand in this matchup.
Pirates vs. Phillies pick, best bet
Philadelphia has been a formidable opponent, but they’ve shown some cracks recently. They’ve lost three of their last four games as favorites against National League teams, and their bullpen struggles leave the door open for Pittsburgh to make a late push. The Pirates have covered the run line in six of their last 10 games as road underdogs and are 5-5 in their last 10 against National League teams with a losing record.
Given Heaney’s ability to generate ground balls (51.3 GB%) and limit hard contact (just 0.98 HR/9), combined with Pittsburgh’s above-average bullpen and a Philadelphia team that is prone to inconsistency, taking the Pirates to cover the +1.5 spread offers excellent value. Suarez’s inconsistency and the Phillies’ inability to put away games late play into the hands of Pittsburgh, who will keep this matchup within striking distance.
Best bet: Pirates +1.5 (-105) at Phillies
Pirates make magic to begin rivalry weekend—tail it with me in the DKN betting group here!
