Despite trailing for the majority of Game 5, the Thunder used a strong fourth quarter to win 112-105 and take a 3-2 series lead.
Game 6 will be in Denver as the Thunder aim to close the series and advance to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2016.
The Thunder are 4.5-point favorites on the road, and the game total is set at 217 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Here are my favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander prop bets for Thunder vs. Nuggets Game 6.
Best Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under 30.5 points (-120)
Tonight’s Game 6 is a chance for the Thunder to close out the series and advance to the Western Conference Finals. They’re favored by 4.5 points, and while I believe they win, there won’t be a major scoring outburst from Gilgeous-Alexander.
The expected 2025 MVP winner is averaging 28.2 points per game against Denver in this series. It’s a drop from Gilgeous-Alexander’s league-leading 32.7 points per game average in the regular season.
More than that, however, Gilgeous-Alexander hasn’t been as effective when playing in Denver this year. He’s played four road games against the Nuggets (two regular season, two playoffs) and is averaging 24.8 points per game. Regardless if its the high altitude or Denver just playing better defense at home, Gilgeous-Alexander is not at his best when playing in the Mile High City.
While the Thunder should close the series out tonight, the Nuggets should play reasonably well. Limiting Gilgeous-Alexander has been the primary point of their defensive scheme, and it’s worked in games at the Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.
In the event that this is a blowout for either team, Gilgeous-Alexander will play less minutes and likely miss out on hitting the over. It’s unlikely to be a one-sided game, but Gilgeous-Alexander should still fall under 30.5 points tonight.