Somehow, Shohei Ohtani is only +145 (in the time it took to write this article it moved from +155!) to hit a home run in tonight’s game between Los Angeles and the Athletics. The market is really devaluing the A’s starting pitching in Dodger Stadium, no? And with the Dodgers favored by -1.5, the market doesn’t seem to be too concerned about LA’s pitching woes. Curious. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Thursday baseball game between the Dodgers and the Athletics.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Dodgers vs. Athletics prediction, preview
Despite the Dodgers’ commanding position in the NL West, their recent pitching troubles have been glaring, and Oakland has shown flashes of offensive brilliance, even if their pitching remains suspect. Tonight’s game presents a fascinating matchup, and the betting angles suggest that this could be an explosive contest, particularly when we consider the numbers on the board.
On paper, the Dodgers are the superior team. They sit atop the NL West with a 28-15 record, powered by a high-octane offense that ranks second in the league in wRC+ (147) and leads MLB in runs per game at home (6.00). Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani continue to drive the team’s offensive success, with Freeman sporting a team-high .362 batting average and Ohtani contributing 13 home runs. And apparently the book has him almost locked for another one tonight.
However, the Dodgers are in a vulnerable spot tonight, forced into a bullpen game with Matt Sauer (1-0, 1.54 ERA) slated to start. Sauer has been effective in his limited opportunities, but this is uncharted territory, and the A’s could capitalize on the Dodgers’ bullpen vulnerability. Los Angeles’ relief corps has posted a 4.43 ERA in May, and without key arms like Treinen and Graterol, they are far from invincible.
The Athletics, meanwhile, have found offensive success against some of the league’s top pitchers, and their lineup is both fun and legitimate. Jacob Wilson (.354 AVG) and Tyler Soderstrom (10 HR, 29 RBIs) have carried the load so far on the gampaign, but the team as a whole ranks 12th in OPS (.755).
However, their pitching remains their Achilles’ heel. Osvaldo Bido (2-3, 4.75 ERA) takes the mound for Oakland. Bido’s underlying metrics are troubling—his 5.90 xFIP and 1.94 HR/9 don’t inspire confidence, and against a lineup as deep as the Dodgers’, the A’s could face serious difficulties. That said, the Dodgers’ bullpen struggles could keep this one closer than expected, as the A’s are more than capable of generating runs.
Athletics vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
With both teams potentially scoring in bunches, this game has all the makings of a slugfest. The over/under is set at 10.0, and given the Dodgers’ powerful lineup and the A’s recent offensive surge, I like the over in this one. Oakland has scored double-digit runs in two of the last three games, and the Dodgers are coming off a 9-3 win. The trend of overs is clear—both teams have consistently hit the over in recent matchups, and with the Dodgers’ bullpen woes, runs should come in plenty.
In terms of betting, the Dodgers remain the favorites for good reason, but I am betting on the over 10.0 runs tonight. Both offenses are clicking, and even with a bullpen game for LA, I expect a high-scoring affair. The total seems too low for a game featuring two teams trending toward offense, and with both teams having their weaknesses exposed, the over is the smart play.
Best bet: Dodgers vs. Athletics o10 runs (-105)
Bidos, bombs, and Ohtani as a lock for a dinger—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
