The Reds enter Thursday’s contest as the stronger team on paper, but recent form suggests something foul on the horizon. Conversely, the White Sox are improving despite their lowly 13-29 record. A tale of two momentums. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Thursday baseball game between the White Sox and the Reds.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
White Sox vs. Reds prediction, preview
The Reds have had their share of struggles recently, but their pitching remains formidable enough. Not, however, especially with Nick Martinez (1-4, 4.23 ERA) on the mound. Martinez has been inconsistent, but he logged a quality start with three earned runs over six innings in his last start against Houston. However, his struggles against power-hitting teams leave him vulnerable to extra-base hits. Martinez’s 1.30 WHIP points to issues with base runners, something the White Sox, even with their offensive struggles, could capitalize on.
Martinez has struck out 20% of batters this season, his ground ball rate (34.8%) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.4:1) leave much to be desired. The Reds’ bullpen has certainly been more reliable than their starting pitching, but their bullpen’s 31.4% inherited scoring rate is concerning.
Cincinnati’s offense is stuttering, with the team batting just .236 for the season and only a .318 OBP. Elly De La Cruz’s power remains their most reliable weapon—he leads the Reds in both home runs (seven) and RBIs (30). But even his efforts have been inconsistent, as shown by his recent .185 average over the past 10 games. Meanwhile, the Reds’ strikeouts remain high (nine per game), making them vulnerable to pitchers with decent command, like Wilson.
In contrast, the White Sox have quietly found a rhythm. Though they rank 28th in runs scored (3.4 per game) and 29th in batting average (.216), their pitching staff has significantly improved in May. Their team ERA of 3.57 in May is a sharp decline from their April performance (4.74), and Bryse Wilson, despite a 4.88 ERA, has posted strong outings recently. His most recent start—where he allowed just one run over five innings—showed signs of him finding form. Wilson has a career 0.98 ERA against Cincinnati, suggesting he’s particularly effective against this team.
The White Sox lineup remains a challenge, but key players like Luis Robert, who leads the team with five home runs, and Miguel Vargas, showing flashes of power with a .896 OPS over the past 15 days, bring hope. Even with their struggles, the White Sox have shown they can win tight games, notably breaking out late against the Reds in Tuesday’s 5-1 victory. They’re also performing well in day games, averaging 0.79 HR/G, compared to 0.61 HR/G in night games..
Reds vs. White Sox pick, best bet
Despite the Reds being favored, the White Sox have momentum. Their recent improvements on the mound and Cincinnati’s offensive volatility make this matchup far closer than the odds suggest. The Reds are 2-6 in their last eight as favorites, and with the White Sox riding improved pitching, this is a prime spot for an upset.
Combine that with the likelihood of a low-scoring game—Cincinnati’s recent struggles with runners in scoring position and Wilson’s solid form on the mound—and the under 9.0 runs becomes a strong play.
Best bet: White Sox (+185) vs. Reds
First White Sox ML of the year—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
Strong total lean: White Sox vs. Reds under 9.0 runs (+100)
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