The Pelicans have started to figure things out, and the Jazz arrive in New Orleans without Jaren Jackson Jr., who popped for 24 points and 10 rebounds in their first meeting. Utah’s 120-119 victory on Oct. 23 remains its only win, while New Orleans has recovered from an 0-4 start with three straight victories. Wednesday’s rematch tips off at 8 p.m. ET at Smoothie King Center.
Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jusuf Nurkic are out, while Mo Bamba is questionable, leaving Utah short on interior options against Zion Williamson. New Orleans is missing Yves Missi, but Trey Murphy III and Jordan Poole are probable. The Pelicans are 6.5-point favorites at -102 on DraftKings Sportsbook, with a -230 Moneyline and the total at 232.5.
Let’s break down tonight’s matchup.
Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans preview, prediction
Utah’s offense needs help. The Jazz enter at 1-6 and rank 29th in offensive rating. To say that they’ve been disappointing is an understatement for a team that’s trying to turn the ship around. Rookie Darryn Peterson has supplied 13.4 PPG, but his 36.3% shooting illustrates the difficulty of asking a young guard to generate consistent offense immediately. There’s opportunity here, especially with Jackson sidelined, but opportunity doesn’t automatically translate into pretty basketball. Peterson has attempted at least 12 shots in six consecutive games, and Utah needs more of those attempts to fall. Lauri Markkanen provided some encouragement Monday with 22 points, although the Jazz still lost 119-97 at San Antonio. For now, they’ll have to try to grab at least a few wins while they wait for Jackson Jr. to return to the fold.
New Orleans has a clearer offensive identity. The Pelicans lead the NBA with 62.6 points in the paint per game and rank third in scoring at 121.9 PPG through Monday’s games. They’re generating a ton of offense around the basket, with most of that responsibility lying with Zion Williamson. Williamson remains the central threat, averaging 21.3 PPG, while Murphy supplies 14.9 PPG and 3.4 APG. His availability matters because Utah can’t comfortably commit every available defender to stopping Zion when Murphy is stationed outside. The Pelicans also showed what this interior attack can accomplish in Saturday’s 121-99 win over Atlanta, scoring 66 paint points and winning the rebounding battle 49-36. It’ll be interesting to see how the Pelicans deal with their backcourt split, with Jeremiah Fears and Murray operating in similar roles. Without Murray, the Pelicans have won all three of their games this season.. In two of those wins, Fears supplied 20 or more points alongside 13 and seven assists in the two games. Granted, the 13 assists came against the traffic cone Kings, but there’s some breakout potential here with Fears.
Jazz at Pelicans pick, best bet
I like New Orleans to cover because Utah’s frontcourt injuries expose the exact area the Pelicans want to apply pressure. Jackson Jr. may not be the rim protector he once was, capping out at a massive 3 BPG back when he was just 23 years old, but he still provides some nice defense inside. With Nurkic also unavailable, Utah has fewer options to absorb contact, handle foul trouble, and keep fresh size in front of Williamson, whose weight loss seemingly has not affected his ability to bruise in the paint.
The first matchup already showed how difficult that Zion makes things. New Orleans scored 64 points in the paint despite making only eight of 26 threes. Nearly 44% of its attempts this season have come within four feet of the basket, compared with a league average slightly above 31%. The likely approach is straightforward: get Williamson rolling downhill, force players to collapse, and then make Utah defend the next pass. A crowded paint can create opportunities for a cutter or an interior finish even when Zion doesn’t take the shot himself. Individually, Williamson has been stellar this season, especially on the defensive end. He’s averaging a massive 2.7 SPG, which is unlikely to stick, but he’s stayed healthy while cashing in a career-high 63.6% from the field.
Utah still has Lauri Markkanen, who can stretch the defense with his shotmaking. Missi’s absence also gives the Pelicans some issues of their own, since they’re also lacking a big man who can defend shots in the paint. Still, backing Utah requires more faith in an offensive turnaround than we can credibly give them at the moment, and they’re not looking so hot.
