Obviously, it’s far too early in the NBA season to talk about the playoffs, but the Houston Rockets have gotten off to a hot start in a Western Conference that suddenly looks wide-open given the injuries that have plagued the Oklahoma City Thunder.
If the season ended today, tonight’s 8:30 p.m. ET game between the Rockets and the Minnesota Timberwolves would be a preview of the 1-8 matchup in the West, as the Timberwolves sit in eighth after eight games.
In addition to its two long-term absences, Anthony Edwards (knee) and Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles), Minnesota will also be without Terrence Shannon Jr. (hip). Houston also has Steven Adams (calf), Clint Capela (ankle), Quadir Copeland (G-League), and Julian Phillips (G-League) out.
The Rockets are 7.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-288 Moneyline), with the point total set to 220.5. The Timberwolves are +235 on the Moneyline.
Below, I’ll break down this potential playoff preview and offer a prediction.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets preview, prediction
In the early going, the Timberwolves’ decision to trade for LaMelo Ball in the offseason looked to have paid dividends, as they got off to a 3-1 start before Edwards went down with his knee injury and plus-32.6 in 66 minutes with Ball and Edwards sharing the court. Since then, Minnesota has gone 2-2, losing to the Golden State Warriors and the San Antonio Spurs, but Ball just turned in his finest game as a Timberwolf and Jonathan Kuminga has continued to buy in on the defensive end. All in all, Minnesota has had the ninth-best offense and second-best defense so far, including a respectable plus-5.1 mark since Edwards’ injury.
Houston didn’t make many moves over the offseason, instead choosing to improve on the margins. The Rockets built around their core by adding Marcus Smart and Bogdan Bogdanović and welcoming back Fred VanVleet after he missed the entire 2025/26 season with a torn ACL. Alperen Şengün (23.3 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 7.8 assists per game) and Kevin Durant (20.8 points per game on 53-41-84 shooting splits) are off to tremendous starts to the season, and Amen Thompson has anchored the defense. Houston has had both the third-best offense and third-best defense in the league so far, and it’s 7-1 despite having already faced two top-two seeds in both conferences.
Timberwolves at Rockets pick, best bet
Even without Edwards, a relentless driver, the Timberwolves should still have enough offensive juice to dominate the Rockets at the rim. Since his injury, Minnesota has attempted the third-most shots in the restricted area, but it hasn’t finished very effectively, in part because of an inexplicable Rudy Gobert shooting slump and in part because Ball has never been a particularly good finisher. Over the same span, Houston has attempted among the fewest restricted-area tries, but it has finished efficiently. The Timberwolves have given it back some on the other end, as they haven’t done a good job stopping opponents from getting to the basket, although they have limited opponents to a lower percentage once they get there.
Both of these teams control the glass, as they rank fifth and sixth in total rebounding percentage this season, and I expect that to be sustainable, given that the Rockets start three players who are six-foot-10 or taller and Joan Beringer has earned more minutes as Gobert’s backup. I’d give Minnesota the slight edge in transition, as though Houston has averaged more transition points per game, the Timberwolves have been more careful with the ball. The Rockets should be able to make up for some of that advantage at the charity stripe, as they were the league’s most disciplined team last season and have been among the best so far in 2026/27.
Minnesota is far more reliant on three-point shooting than Houston is, as it has attempted 6.7 more triples per game than the Rockets have so far but connected at a slightly lower rate. Since Edwards’ injury, the Timberwolves have generated the most wide-open threes per game, while Houston has created the fourth-fewest uncontested looks over the same span, so in the long run, I’d favor Minnesota, especially with Jabari Smith Jr.’s 48.1% accuracy likely unsustainable. Defensively, the teams have allowed a similar number of wide-open threes per game so far this season, but the Rockets have gotten fortunate that opponents have connected less frequently.
On paper, despite Houston’s 7-1 record so far, I think the Timberwolves are the better team. There are some caveats, though; they’ve faced the sixth-weakest schedule so far this season and the Rockets the joint-strongest. Minnesota has never been more than four points per 100 possessions worse without Edwards on the floor, and the additions of Ball and Ayo Dosunmu have been good for its back-court depth. Home-court advantage should carry Houston over the top, but I expect this game to come down to the wire.
