How’s a ten-game win streak sound to you? Sounds even better to the Minnesota Twins, who’ll need just that sort of electricity all throughout the season to keep pace in the AL Central. As for the Orioles and the AL East—well, they say “cellar door” is the most eloquent phrase in the English language! Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Thursday baseball game between the Orioles and the Twins.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Orioles vs. Twins prediction, preview
The Baltimore Orioles will look to avoid a series sweep as they face the Minnesota Twins Thursday afternoon. The Orioles’ pitching has been one of the weakest in the league, ranking 27th in ERA (5.38) and 27th in WHIP (1.49). Tomoyuki Sugano, however, has been a rare bright spot, posting a 2.72 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in his eight starts. The right-hander has been rock solid, allowing just 1.36 HR/9 and 2.4 BB/9. Baltimore will lean on Sugano, who’s logged at least 7.0 innings in three of his last five starts. His ability to eat innings gives them an edge, especially with their bullpen’s 6.61 ERA in day games. The question is: can they back up his effort offensively?
The Orioles’ offense is really the problem down to the bone-thick root. It’s currently ranked 25th in runs per game (3.8) and 26th in batting average (.227). Their performance in day games has been just as uninspiring, sitting at .267 with 27 home runs in 17 games. Despite some individual flashes—Gunnar Henderson and welcome back Cedric Mullins—the Orioles remain a bottom-tier offensive unit. Henderson brings a .275 average, and a resurgent Mullins has popped home runs and 25 RBIs. But the power numbers aren’t enough to mask the inefficiency relative to their depth.
This ten game win streak has really bungled the season stats for the Twins. Minnesota enters this game with driven by their pitching staff, which ranks fifth in ERA (3.38) and fourth in WHIP (1.17). The offense remains a work in progress, ranking 21st in runs per game (4.0) and 19th in batting average (.239). But it’s burst alive during the streak. Byron Buxton has been crucial, slugging .503 with nine home runs and a .808 OPS during the win streak. Trevor Larnach’s steady power, with a .417 slugging and seven home runs, adds balance to the lineup. Meanwhile, Kody Clemens’ .300 OBP and clutch three-run homer in the doubleheader reinforce Minnesota’s offensive depth. There’s really something here.
Even better news for the Twins is their pitching depth, as Chris Paddack (4.76 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) takes the mound. His numbers have been decent but not outstanding, and while he’s been better at home, he still carries a 6.87 ERA on the road. While the offense works itself into form, the Twins’ bullpen has been reliable with a 3.08 ERA, ranking fifth in MLB.
Twins vs. Orioles pick, best bet
Paddack’s performance has seen ups and downs this season. He’s coming off a strong start against the Giants, limiting them to one earned run over 7.1 innings. But Minnesota has only won two of his seven starts in 2025, which puts them in a vulnerable position. On the other hand, Baltimore has found more success when Sugano starts, as he has helped the team to a 5-3 record in his eight starts.
The Twins come into this game riding a 10-game winning streak, and the Orioles are 2-8 in their last 10. With Minnesota’s pitching holding firm and Baltimore’s offense struggling, it’s hard to see the Orioles turning things around today. Despite the Orioles’ recent history of winning in Sugano’s starts, their offensive inefficiency and the pressure of facing a solid Twins pitching staff won’t be enough to overcome their poor bullpen performance.
Minnesota has a 3-2 record as underdogs this season, and Minnesota’s bullpen advantage solidifies the pick. The Orioles are 9-0 to the over in day games at home this season, making over 9.0 runs a strong lean. But ultimately, the value is in the Twins at +115 for the win.
Best bet: Twins (+115) at Orioles
Streak gets to sticks (11)!—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
Strong total lean: Orioles vs. Twins over 9.0 runs (-105)
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