In addition a 121-113 defeat on Monday, the Celtics lost Jayson Tatum for the rest of the postseason due to a ruptured achilles. That leaves Boston in a dire spot, without its best player while facing elimination. For the Knicks, tonight is an opportunity for the franchise to reach its first Eastern Conference Finals in a quarter-century. Can New York finish the job, or will the C’s live to fight another day?
The Celtics enter tonight’s contest as 4.5-point favorites over the Knicks, with the over/under set at 207.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting Splits
Tonight’s moneyline is about as lopsided as it gets, especially in a playoff game. The Knicks are collecting 87% of the handle and 79% of all bets in tonight’s contest. After winning three of its first four games, bettors are expecting New York to take down an injury-depleted Celtics roster. However, Boston did manage to go 8-2 without Tatum during the regular season. An inspired performance tonight wouldn’t be the most shocking result we’ve seen this postseason.
The spread is looking far more even, with only 56% of the handle going towards Knicks +4.5. However, far more bets (66%) are backing the ‘Bockers. That means the sharp money is leaning towards the Celtics, playing their third game of this series at home. This postseason, New York is 4-0 against the spread (ATS) as road underdogs.
In what has been a physical, heavy-hitting series, the public is expecting more scoring tonight. Games 1 through 3 have been a slog, failing to reach the over in each contest. However, Game 4 was an offensive explosion, with the two teams combining for 234 total points. Both squads can knock down shots in a hurry, so Monday’s performance could be a sign of things to come.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the five player props in tonight’s matchup receiving the most bets:
- Payton Pritchard 15+ points (-130)
- Payton Pritchard 20+ points (+200)
- Jaylen Brown 30+ points (+195)
- Karl-Anthony Towns under 1.5 three-pointers made (-188)
- Jalen Brunson over 6.5 assists (-120)
The biggest x-factor for Boston tonight may be Payton Pritchard. This 2024-25 Sixth Man of the Year has been fantastic this postseason, giving the Celtics a terrific scoring punch off the bench. Through four games in this series, the Oregon alum has averaged 14.3 points on 43.9% shooting (38.7 3PT%). That includes a spectacular 23-point outing in Game 3 at Madison Square Garden.
If the Celtics are going to replicate Tatum’s production, it’ll take a Herculean effort from Jaylen Brown. The guard has carried this roster before, having won Finals MVP against the Mavericks last season. Still, producing without an All-Star teammate is no easy task. Over his last ten games against the Knicks, JB has recorded 19.2 points on 40.7% shooting.
It’s been a mixed bag in round two for Karl-Anthony Towns. The center has certainly put up numbers, posting 14.0 rebounds per game. However, the stretch-five has gone one-for-ten (10.0%) from three-point range this series. Getting KAT going from beyond the arc will likely be an early goal for the Knicks. Still, Towns has a clear size advantage inside; there might not be a need to set up from long-distance. It makes sense that the public is expecting a disappointing shooting display tonight.
The NBA’s Clutch Player of the Year, Jalen Brunson, was at his best in Game 4. During an epic duel with Tatum, the point guard dropped 26 of his 39 points in the second half. As impressive as the All-Star’s shot-making can be, don’t sleep on his passing skills. Brunson has dished out an average of 7.8 assists per game this round. Another well-rounded stat line has become the expectation for New York’s face of the franchise.
