Jayson Tatum is not walking through that door next year.
At least, it’s not likely. Boston’s superstar suffered a devastating injury in the final minutes of the Celtics’ Game 4 loss to the Knicks in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, tearing his right Achilles tendon.
How Does Tatum’s Injury Affect Boston’s 2025/26 Championship Odds?
This injury comes at an extremely unfortunate time for the Celtics, who were in the midst of a campaign to go back-to-back. Suddenly, the team’s short- and long-term futures are up in the air. Prior to Tatum’s injury, the Celtics boasted the second-best odds to win the 2025-26 NBA Championship on DraftKings Sportsbook at +250, just behind the Oklahoma City Thunder. With his absence now looming for the entire season, it’s yet to be seen how Boston’s odds will shift in that market, but they almost certainly won’t be as short.
Achilles injuries take an extensive amount of rehab, with Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson serving as recent examples of players who have recovered from them. Durant’s return to elite form serves as hope for Celtics fans that Tatum, who is still only 27, should become an MVP contender once again. It will just take time.
Unfortunately, considering Boston’s massive payroll, time is one thing the team doesn’t have much of.
The Path Forward for Brad Stevens
Celtics President of Basketball Operations Brad Stevens was already going to be faced with difficult decisions with a healthy Tatum this offseason. A third-straight year above the second apron isn’t feasible for any team from a tax perspective, which meant Stevens was going to have to deal at least one of Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis and Derrick White, and more than likely two of those players.
Now, faced with the probability of a full 2025/26 campaign without Tatum — and therefore no true title contention — Stevens will likely be tasked by new owner Bill Chisholm with cutting salary, possibly even to dip under the luxury tax altogether. Teams need to sit below the luxury tax for two straight seasons to reset the harsh repeater tax Boston is currently enduring. I expect Stevens to seriously explore trade avenues for Jaylen Brown, aiming to receive a package built around a young star like Amen Thompson or Stephon Castle. Trading Holiday and/or Porzingis won’t garner similar returns, but it doesn’t make sense for ownership to spend unnecessary money for a team that won’t be able to win a title.
We’re likely looking at a complete reset by the time Tatum returns to the fold, with only Derrick White and potentially one of Porzingis/Holiday remaining of the core that won Boston its 18th banner.
A potential dynasty cut short. Jayson Tatum will return, but the Celtics may never be the same.
